Week 7 2025 · October 9, 2025
Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston 29–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Jacksonville State was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:52 left): Sam Houston’s two-point try failed, worth 17 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.
Final
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 29 |
|---|---|
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Jacksonville State lucky · −36 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 6, Sam Houston wins 4.
- 1 JXST 38 SHSU 7
- 2 JXST 27 SHSU 6
- 3 JXST 29 SHSU 14
- 4 JXST 34 SHSU 23
- 5 JXST 31 SHSU 24
- 6 JXST 27 SHSU 24
- 7 JXST 20 SHSU 23
- 8 JXST 17 SHSU 24
- 9 JXST 10 SHSU 24
- 10 JXST 17 SHSU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jacksonville State wins 64% of them, Sam Houston 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 23.3% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 11.4% |
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 7.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Rippa, 35 yds blocked · 81% expected
- G. Rippa, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- G. Rippa, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- G. Rippa, 52 yds made · 50% expected
Penalties: Jacksonville State 7 for 76 yards, Sam Houston 5 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.5 pts |
| Q1 13:32 | Face Mask on Sam Houston, 7 yards | +1% JXST +1.2 pts |
| Q1 3:09 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards | +3% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:13 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 9 yards | +5% SHSU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 2:43 | Illegal Touching on Sam Houston, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% JXST +1.9 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Face Mask on Jacksonville State, 11 yards | +2% SHSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:28 | Personal Foul on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | 0% JXST +0.2 pts |
| Q3 8:46 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +6% JXST +2.0 pts |
| Q3 8:46 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% SHSU +2.6 pts |
| Q3 8:46 | Illegal Forward Pass on Jacksonville State, 5 yards | +4% SHSU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 10:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +5% SHSU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:55 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards | +3% SHSU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Sam Houston’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:09 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedG. Rippa had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 81% expected for himHolding on Jacksonville State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:17 | Jacksonville State fumbled and Sam Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% SHSU | JXST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:46 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedJacksonville State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedPass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsIllegal Forward Pass on Jacksonville State, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +7% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 14:52 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedSam Houston fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 10:34 | Jacksonville State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% SHSU | JXST: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 4:55 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedSam Houston converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 14% expected | +12% SHSU | JXST: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:52 | Sam Houston’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +17% JXST | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:47 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% JXST | JXST: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jacksonville State 81% · Sam Houston 19%
- Final margin
- Jacksonville State by 2
- Luck in points
- 3.8 for Sam Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jacksonville State by 5.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Jacksonville State 64% · Sam Houston 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Jacksonville State · 
Sam Houston
More from Week 7 2025
- Missouri State at Middle Tennessee MOST 22–20 · replay 40% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State KENN 35–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Liberty at UTEP LIB 19–8 · replay 95% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner
- Iowa State at Colorado COLO 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner