luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Iowa State at Colorado, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Colorado beat Iowa State 24–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Colorado wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Colorado.

Before kickoff Iowa State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:07 left): Iowa State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to Colorado.

Final

Iowa State Cyclones 17
Colorado Buffaloes 24

October 11, 2025 · Folsom Field · Closing line: Iowa State −3

Luck index +56 Colorado lucky · −56 Iowa State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Iowa State wins 6, Colorado wins 4.

  1. 1 ISU 33 COLO 7
  2. 2 ISU 28 COLO 10
  3. 3 ISU 49 COLO 35
  4. 4 ISU 24 COLO 14
  5. 5 ISU 20 COLO 14
  6. 6 ISU 31 COLO 28
  7. 7 ISU 21 COLO 23
  8. 8 ISU 10 COLO 17
  9. 9 ISU 14 COLO 27
  10. 10 ISU 16 COLO 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Iowa State wins 56% of them, Colorado 44%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colorado by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Iowa State by 17+17.6%
Iowa State by 9–1617.9%
Iowa State by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation1.9%
Colorado by 1–822.7%
Colorado by 9–1611.6%
Colorado by 17+8.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to Iowa State: the final margin was Colorado by 7, without the luck Colorado by 9.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Smith, 38 yds made · 75% expected
  • B. Buchanan, 57 yds missed · 42% expected
  • A. Mata, 29 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Iowa State 6 for 55 yards, Colorado 6 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:32 Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards 0% COLO +0.2 pts
Q1 12:06 Delay of Game on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% COLO +0.5 pts
Q1 1:59 Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yards +1% COLO +0.5 pts
Q1 0:30 False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ISU +0.9 pts
Q2 8:17 False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% COLO +0.6 pts
Q2 7:08 False Start on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% COLO +0.6 pts
Q2 2:14 Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ISU +0.5 pts
Q3 9:26 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa State, 15 yards +11% ISU +3.7 pts
Q3 8:11 False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ISU +0.6 pts
Q3 0:00 Offside on Colorado, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% ISU +3.6 pts
Q4 12:41 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado, 15 yards +7% ISU +1.6 pts
Q4 2:14 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards +1% ISU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Colorado’s chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Colorado was ahead in it, below while Iowa State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 9:26 Iowa State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +12% ISU ISU: Turnover
2 Q3 7:30 Colorado converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% COLO COLO: Touchdown
3 Q3 4:26 Colorado converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% COLO COLO: Punt
4 Q3 0:28 Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% COLO ISU: Turnover
5 Q4 12:41 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% ISU ISU: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 11:52 Colorado converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% COLO COLO: Punt
7 Q4 9:46 Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% ISU COLO: Punt
8 Q4 7:07 Iowa State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +14% COLO ISU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Iowa State 8% · Colorado 92%

Final margin
Colorado by 7
Luck in points
2.2 for Iowa State
Luck-adjusted margin
Colorado by 9.2
Replay with same day's form
Iowa State 56% · Colorado 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Iowa State · Colorado

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