Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
BYU at Arizona, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
BYU beat Arizona 33–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Arizona had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Arizona.
Before kickoff BYU was a 56% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:47 left): BYU converted 3rd & 4, worth 21 points of win probability to BYU.
Final (OT)
 BYU Cougars | 33 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Wildcats | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 BYU lucky · −37 Arizona
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. BYU wins 6, Arizona wins 4.
- 1 BYU 34 ARIZ 7
- 2 BYU 23 ARIZ 3
- 3 BYU 21 ARIZ 6
- 4 BYU 27 ARIZ 17
- 5 BYU 17 ARIZ 10
- 6 BYU 27 ARIZ 24
- 7 BYU 7 ARIZ 10
- 8 BYU 23 ARIZ 28
- 9 BYU 17 ARIZ 27
- 10 BYU 10 ARIZ 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
BYU wins 63% of them, Arizona 37%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| BYU by 17+ | 21.3% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 22.1% |
| Level after regulation | 7.1% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Arizona by 17+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Salgado-Medina, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- W. Ferrin, 42 yds missed · 74% expected
- W. Ferrin, 24 yds made · 96% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- W. Ferrin, 45 yds made · 67% expected
Penalties: BYU 4 for 27 yards, Arizona 3 for 18 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:03 | Offside on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:50 | Roughing the Passer on BYU, 15 yards | +1% ARIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:56 | Chop Block on Arizona, 15 yards | +4% BYU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 9:07 | Offside on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% ARIZ +2.3 pts |
| Q3 6:30 | Holding on BYU, 2 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ARIZ +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:42 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 2 yards | +5% BYU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:24 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 1 yard | +12% BYU +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Arizona’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 2:38 | W. Ferrin missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +6% ARIZ | BYU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 9:07 | Offside on BYU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% ARIZ | ARIZ: Turnover |
| 3 | Q4 14:04 | Arizona converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 13:14 | Arizona converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +11% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 7:20 | BYU converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% BYU | BYU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:47 | The game turned hereBYU converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedBYU fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +21% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:24 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 1 yardJudgment calls | +12% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 8 | OT | M. Salgado-Medina made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him | +8% BYU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
BYU 86% · Arizona 14%
- Final margin
- BYU by 6
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for Arizona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- BYU by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- BYU 63% · Arizona 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
BYU · 
Arizona
More from Week 7 2025
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Iowa State at Colorado COLO 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner
- UCF at Cincinnati CIN 20–11 · replay 76% for the winner
- Houston at Oklahoma State HOU 39–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Kansas at Texas Tech TTU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Arizona State at Utah UTAH 42–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner