Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Arizona State at Utah, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Arizona State 42–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 10 |
|---|---|
 Utah Utes | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Utah about even · 0 Arizona State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona State wins 0, Utah wins 10.
- 1 ASU 14 UTAH 24
- 2 ASU 21 UTAH 38
- 3 ASU 10 UTAH 31
- 4 ASU 7 UTAH 31
- 5 ASU 0 UTAH 27
- 6 ASU 2 UTAH 31
- 7 ASU 3 UTAH 35
- 8 ASU 3 UTAH 38
- 9 ASU 3 UTAH 41
- 10 ASU 3 UTAH 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona State wins 0% of them, Utah 100%. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Utah by 17+ | 90.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Gomez, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- J. Gomez, 29 yds missed · 88% expected
Penalties: Arizona State 8 for 57 yards, Utah 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:30 | Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UTAH +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:08 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards | +3% ASU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:02 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +1% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:34 | Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.3 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on Arizona State, 0 yards | 0% UTAH 0.0 pts |
| Q2 9:48 | Pass Interference on Utah, 11 yards | +2% ASU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +1% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:06 | Pass Interference on Arizona State, 10 yards | +1% UTAH +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:40 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:32 | Delay of Game on Utah, 4 yards · pre-snap | +5% ASU +3.8 pts |
| Q4 11:49 | Personal Foul on Arizona State, 12 yards | 0% UTAH +0.7 pts |
| Q4 6:28 | Personal Foul on Utah, 15 yards | 0% ASU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Utah’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:29 | Utah converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:56 | Utah converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +3% UTAH | UTAH: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:36 | Arizona State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% ASU | ASU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 4:08 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ASU | ASU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 0:55 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% ASU | UTAH: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 5:59 | Arizona State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +3% ASU | ASU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 3:11 | J. Gomez missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +6% UTAH | ASU: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 4:32 | Delay of Game on Utah, 4 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona State 0% · Utah 100%
- Final margin
- Utah by 32
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Arizona State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 36.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona State 0% · Utah 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Arizona State · 
Utah
More from Week 7 2025
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Iowa State at Colorado COLO 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner
- BYU at Arizona BYU 33–27 · replay 63% for the winner
- UCF at Cincinnati CIN 20–11 · replay 76% for the winner
- Houston at Oklahoma State HOU 39–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Kansas at Texas Tech TTU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner