Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
UCF at Cincinnati, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Cincinnati beat UCF 20–11, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 74% favorite.
Final
 UCF Knights | 11 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Cincinnati about even · −24 UCF
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCF wins 2, Cincinnati wins 8.
- 1 UCF 13 CIN 0
- 2 UCF 17 CIN 14
- 3 UCF 21 CIN 24
- 4 UCF 17 CIN 21
- 5 UCF 10 CIN 17
- 6 UCF 3 CIN 14
- 7 UCF 10 CIN 24
- 8 UCF 7 CIN 26
- 9 UCF 0 CIN 23
- 10 UCF 0 CIN 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCF wins 24% of them, Cincinnati 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCF by 17+ | 3.0% |
| UCF by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| UCF by 1–8 | 13.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.4% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 27.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Rusnak, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- N. Ruelas, 45 yds made · 65% expected
- S. Rusnak, 24 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: UCF 10 for 75 yards, Cincinnati 6 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:47 | Ineligible Downfield on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CIN +2.9 pts |
| Q1 6:26 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:20 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards | +2% UCF +1.6 pts |
| Q1 0:12 | Pass Interference on UCF, 15 yards | 0% CIN +3.5 pts |
| Q2 9:58 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:33 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% UCF +2.9 pts |
| Q2 2:39 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +1% UCF +1.4 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards | +1% UCF +1.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:57 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% CIN +3.1 pts |
| Q3 10:57 | Chop Block on UCF, 15 yards | +3% CIN +2.9 pts |
| Q3 10:57 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:13 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards | 0% UCF +4.8 pts |
| Q4 1:12 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCF +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Cincinnati’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:48 | Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% UCF | CIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:33 | UCF was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% CIN | UCF: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 9:49 | UCF was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +5% CIN | UCF: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 6:47 | Ineligible Downfield on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:07 | UCF was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% CIN | UCF: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 0:20 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 14:25 | Cincinnati fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 10:57 | UCF converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedUCF converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedUCF was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedUCF converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedUCF was stopped on 3rd & 273rd & 4th downs · 10% expectedHolding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsChop Block on UCF, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on UCF, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% CIN | UCF: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCF 31% · Cincinnati 69%
- Final margin
- Cincinnati by 9
- Luck in points
- 6.0 for Cincinnati
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cincinnati by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- UCF 24% · Cincinnati 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
UCF · 
Cincinnati
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- BYU at Arizona BYU 33–27 · replay 63% for the winner
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- Kansas at Texas Tech TTU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
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- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
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