Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Houston at Oklahoma State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Oklahoma State 39–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Houston wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Houston was an 83% favorite.
Final
 Houston Cougars | 39 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Houston about even · −12 Oklahoma State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston wins 9, Oklahoma State wins 1.
- 1 HOU 42 OKST 2
- 2 HOU 37 OKST 5
- 3 HOU 28 OKST 0
- 4 HOU 33 OKST 10
- 5 HOU 42 OKST 23
- 6 HOU 24 OKST 7
- 7 HOU 16 OKST 3
- 8 HOU 19 OKST 9
- 9 HOU 38 OKST 35
- 10 HOU 3 OKST 9
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston wins 88% of them, Oklahoma State 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston by 17+ | 52.6% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sanchez, 46 yds made · 63% expected
- L. Ward, 53 yds missed · 50% expected
- L. Ward, 37 yds made · 78% expected
- E. Sanchez, 48 yds made · 60% expected
- E. Sanchez, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- E. Sanchez, 29 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Houston 8 for 69 yards, Oklahoma State 11 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:42 | Face Mask on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | +2% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 9:10 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OKST +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:49 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +1% OKST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:33 | Illegal Substitution on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:23 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards | +1% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:13 | Delay of Game on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +1% OKST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:37 | Intentional Grounding on Oklahoma State, 0 yards | 0% HOU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 7:50 | Delay of Game on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:50 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | +2% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:20 | Illegal Substitution on Oklahoma State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | 0% OKST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:21 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 2:08 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:38 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 1 yard | 0% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:59 | Pass Interference on Houston, 9 yards | 0% OKST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:24 | False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:37 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 13 yards | 0% HOU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 7:02 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards | 0% OKST +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:12 | Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +4% OKST | OKST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:42 | Face Mask on Oklahoma State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:46 | Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:16 | Oklahoma State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +5% HOU | OKST: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q1 2:45 | Houston converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +4% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:18 | L. Ward missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before | +3% HOU | OKST: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 9:45 | Houston was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedHolding on Houston, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% OKST | HOU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 8:27 | Oklahoma State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% OKST | OKST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston 99% · Oklahoma State 1%
- Final margin
- Houston by 22
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 18.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston 88% · Oklahoma State 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Houston · 
Oklahoma State
More from Week 7 2025
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Iowa State at Colorado COLO 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner
- BYU at Arizona BYU 33–27 · replay 63% for the winner
- UCF at Cincinnati CIN 20–11 · replay 76% for the winner
- Kansas at Texas Tech TTU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Arizona State at Utah UTAH 42–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner