luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

TCU at Kansas State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Kansas State beat TCU 41–28, but the replays lean toward TCU: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff TCU was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:28 left): Return touchdown by Kansas State, worth 13 points of win probability to Kansas State.

Final

TCU Horned Frogs 28
Kansas State Wildcats 41

October 11, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Closing line: TCU −3

Luck index +69 Kansas State very lucky · −69 TCU

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. TCU wins 7, Kansas State wins 3.

  1. 1 TCU 41 KSU 10
  2. 2 TCU 32 KSU 9
  3. 3 TCU 38 KSU 21
  4. 4 TCU 38 KSU 24
  5. 5 TCU 17 KSU 7
  6. 6 TCU 31 KSU 24
  7. 7 TCU 24 KSU 21
  8. 8 TCU 13 KSU 16
  9. 9 TCU 20 KSU 30
  10. 10 TCU 14 KSU 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

TCU wins 69% of them, Kansas State 31%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
TCU by 17+27.5%
TCU by 9–1619.5%
TCU by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation5.1%
Kansas State by 1–813.0%
Kansas State by 9–168.2%
Kansas State by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to Kansas State: the final margin was Kansas State by 13, without the luck Kansas State by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Rodriguez, 19 yds made · 96% expected
  • L. Rodriguez, 36 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: TCU 8 for 49 yards, Kansas State 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:42 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KSU +0.6 pts
Q1 8:29 False Start on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TCU +0.5 pts
Q1 7:05 Penalty on Kansas State, 5 yards +4% TCU +2.1 pts
Q1 6:36 Delay of Game on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TCU +0.5 pts
Q1 4:42 Personal Foul on TCU, 0 yards +2% KSU +0.7 pts
Q2 11:02 Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% TCU +2.4 pts
Q2 2:02 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kansas State, 15 yards +5% TCU +1.9 pts
Q2 0:53 Holding on TCU, 10 yards +2% KSU +0.7 pts
Q3 10:28 Delay of Game on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KSU +0.8 pts
Q3 10:28 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TCU +0.6 pts
Q3 9:49 Illegal Forward Pass on TCU, 5 yards +2% KSU +1.3 pts
Q4 11:48 Pass Interference on TCU, 9 yards +1% KSU +1.0 pts
Q4 10:16 Holding on TCU, 10 yards 0% KSU +1.2 pts

When it happened

Kansas State’s chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kansas State was ahead in it, below while TCU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:05 Penalty on Kansas State, 5 yardsJudgment calls +4% TCU TCU: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 14:08 Kansas State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% KSU KSU: Punt
3 Q2 11:02 Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% TCU TCU: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:28 TCU converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% TCU TCU: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:02 TCU fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Kansas State, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by Kansas StateSpecial teams +10% KSU TCU: Punt
6 Q3 13:41 TCU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% TCU TCU: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 12:07 TCU was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% KSU TCU: Punt
8 Q3 10:28 Delay of Game on TCU, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on TCU, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by Kansas StateSpecial teams +13% KSU KSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

TCU 4% · Kansas State 96%

Final margin
Kansas State by 13
Luck in points
2.3 for Kansas State
Luck-adjusted margin
Kansas State by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
TCU 69% · Kansas State 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · TCU · Kansas State

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