Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Kansas at Texas Tech, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Kansas 42–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Kansas Jayhawks | 17 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Texas Tech about even · −3 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kansas wins 0, Texas Tech wins 10.
- 1 KU 24 TTU 29
- 2 KU 17 TTU 30
- 3 KU 17 TTU 33
- 4 KU 31 TTU 51
- 5 KU 14 TTU 38
- 6 KU 7 TTU 34
- 7 KU 20 TTU 51
- 8 KU 7 TTU 41
- 9 KU 7 TTU 47
- 10 KU 14 TTU 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kansas wins 3% of them, Texas Tech 97%. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kansas by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 5.8% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 10.2% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 80.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- U. Bellenfant, 25 yds made · 92% expected
- S. Harrington, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- L. Marjan, 55 yds made · 47% expected
Penalties: Kansas 6 for 45 yards, Texas Tech 7 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:45 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% KU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:26 | Ineligible Downfield on Kansas, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% TTU +2.3 pts |
| Q2 6:40 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas Tech, 12 yards | 0% KU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:20 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% KU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | Offside on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TTU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:12 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% KU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 13:52 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | +1% KU +2.8 pts |
| Q4 12:58 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% TTU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 12:05 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% TTU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 6:29 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | 0% TTU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:26 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:42 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% KU +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:30 | Kansas fumbled and Texas Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% TTU | KU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:39 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedTexas Tech’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% TTU | TTU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 1:17 | Kansas converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +3% KU | KU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 13:54 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% TTU | TTU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 12:48 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 85% expected | +4% KU | TTU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 10:17 | Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +4% TTU | KU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 3:10 | Kansas converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% KU | KU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 1:55 | Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +3% TTU | KU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kansas 0% · Texas Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 25
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for Kansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 29.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Kansas 3% · Texas Tech 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Kansas · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 7 2025
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Iowa State at Colorado COLO 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner
- BYU at Arizona BYU 33–27 · replay 63% for the winner
- UCF at Cincinnati CIN 20–11 · replay 76% for the winner
- Houston at Oklahoma State HOU 39–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Arizona State at Utah UTAH 42–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner