luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · October 8, 2025–October 11, 2025

Week 7 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

16 upsets in Week 7 2025. The biggest: Northwestern beat Penn State 22–21 as 9% underdogs, and got lucky. 8 of 56 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Alabama beat Missouri 27–24 in a game it wins 30% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 7 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 8 of 16 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Northwestern 22–21 @ Penn State 9% 19% Lucky
Marshall 48–24 vs Old Dominion 17% 90% Deserved
Pittsburgh 34–31 @ Florida State 25% 66% Deserved
Bowling Green 28–23 vs Toledo 25% 21% Lucky
Troy 48–41 @ Texas State 31% 31% Lucky
UCLA 38–13 @ Michigan State 32% 96% Deserved
Indiana 30–20 @ Oregon 32% 55% Coin flip
Colorado State 49–21 vs Fresno State 36% 81% Deserved
Kennesaw State 35–7 vs Louisiana Tech 39% 92% Deserved
Colorado 24–17 vs Iowa State 42% 44% Coin flip
Kansas State 41–28 vs TCU 42% 31% Lucky
Coastal Carolina 23–8 vs UL Monroe 42% 31% Lucky
South Florida 63–36 @ North Texas 44% 93% Deserved
Eastern Michigan 16–10 vs Northern Illinois 46% 47% Coin flip
Wyoming 35–28 vs San José State 46% 87% Deserved
Hawai'i 44–26 vs Utah State 46% 75% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 7 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Navy W 32–31 @ Temple 15% +85
2 Northwestern W 22–21 @ Penn State 19% +81
3 Bowling Green W 28–23 vs Toledo 21% +79
4 Minnesota W 27–20 vs Purdue 25% +75
5 Alabama W 27–24 @ Missouri 30% +70
6 Coastal Carolina W 23–8 vs UL Monroe 31% +69
7 Kansas State W 41–28 vs TCU 31% +69
8 Troy W 48–41 @ Texas State 31% +69
9 Missouri State W 22–20 @ Middle Tennessee 40% +60
10 Colorado W 24–17 vs Iowa State 44% +56
11 Eastern Michigan W 16–10 vs Northern Illinois 47% +53
12 Southern Miss W 38–35 @ Georgia Southern 54% +46
13 Indiana W 30–20 @ Oregon 55% +45
14 Ohio State W 34–16 @ Illinois 61% +39
15 UNLV W 51–48 vs Air Force 62% +38
16 BYU W 33–27 @ Arizona 63% +37
17 Jacksonville State W 29–27 vs Sam Houston 64% +36
18 Pittsburgh W 34–31 @ Florida State 66% +34
19 Texas W 23–6 vs Oklahoma 66% +34
20 Georgia W 20–10 @ Auburn 71% +29
21 Tennessee W 34–31 vs Arkansas 72% +28
22 Hawai'i W 44–26 vs Utah State 75% +25
23 Cincinnati W 20–11 vs UCF 76% +24
24 Tulane W 26–19 vs East Carolina 76% +24
25 Ole Miss W 24–21 vs Washington State 77% +23
26 Georgia Tech W 35–20 vs Virginia Tech 77% +23
27 James Madison W 24–14 vs Louisiana 79% +21
28 Miami (OH) W 20–7 @ Akron 80% +20
29 Colorado State W 49–21 vs Fresno State 81% +19
30 Washington W 38–19 vs Rutgers 83% +17
31 USC W 31–13 vs Michigan 85% +15
32 Wyoming W 35–28 vs San José State 87% +13
33 Houston W 39–17 @ Oklahoma State 88% +12
34 Boise State W 41–25 vs New Mexico 89% +11
35 Marshall W 48–24 vs Old Dominion 90% +10
36 SMU W 34–10 vs Stanford 92% +8
37 Kennesaw State W 35–7 vs Louisiana Tech 92% +8
38 South Florida W 63–36 @ North Texas 93% +7
39 LSU W 20–10 vs South Carolina 95% +5
40 Liberty W 19–8 @ UTEP 95% +5
41 UCLA W 38–13 @ Michigan State 96% +4
42 Nebraska W 34–31 @ Maryland 96% +4
43 Notre Dame W 36–7 vs NC State 96% +4
44 Texas Tech W 42–17 vs Kansas 97% +3
45 Texas A&M W 34–17 vs Florida 98% +2
46 San Diego State W 44–10 @ Nevada 98% +2
47 Clemson W 41–10 @ Boston College 99% +1
48 UTSA W 61–13 vs Rice 99% +1
49 Army W 24–7 vs Charlotte 100% 0
50 App State W 41–20 @ Georgia State 100% 0
51 Iowa W 37–0 @ Wisconsin 100% 0
52 Wake Forest W 39–14 @ Oregon State 100% 0
53 Utah W 42–10 vs Arizona State 100% 0
54 Kent State W 42–6 vs Massachusetts 100% 0
55 Western Michigan W 42–0 vs Ball State 100% 0
56 Florida Atlantic W 53–33 vs UAB 100% 0
57 Ball State L 0–42 @ Western Michigan 0% 0
58 UAB L 33–53 @ Florida Atlantic 0% 0
59 Massachusetts L 6–42 @ Kent State 0% 0
60 Oregon State L 14–39 vs Wake Forest 0% 0
61 Arizona State L 10–42 @ Utah 0% 0
62 Wisconsin L 0–37 vs Iowa 0% 0
63 Georgia State L 20–41 vs App State 0% 0
64 Charlotte L 7–24 @ Army 0% 0
65 Rice L 13–61 @ UTSA 1% −1
66 Boston College L 10–41 vs Clemson 1% −1
67 Nevada L 10–44 vs San Diego State 2% −2
68 Florida L 17–34 @ Texas A&M 2% −2
69 Kansas L 17–42 @ Texas Tech 3% −3
70 NC State L 7–36 @ Notre Dame 4% −4
71 Maryland L 31–34 vs Nebraska 4% −4
72 Michigan State L 13–38 vs UCLA 4% −4
73 UTEP L 8–19 vs Liberty 5% −5
74 South Carolina L 10–20 @ LSU 5% −5
75 North Texas L 36–63 vs South Florida 7% −7
76 Louisiana Tech L 7–35 @ Kennesaw State 8% −8
77 Stanford L 10–34 @ SMU 8% −8
78 Old Dominion L 24–48 @ Marshall 10% −10
79 New Mexico L 25–41 @ Boise State 11% −11
80 Oklahoma State L 17–39 vs Houston 12% −12
81 San José State L 28–35 @ Wyoming 13% −13
82 Michigan L 13–31 @ USC 15% −15
83 Rutgers L 19–38 @ Washington 17% −17
84 Fresno State L 21–49 @ Colorado State 19% −19
85 Akron L 7–20 vs Miami (OH) 20% −20
86 Louisiana L 14–24 @ James Madison 21% −21
87 Washington State L 21–24 @ Ole Miss 23% −23
88 Virginia Tech L 20–35 @ Georgia Tech 23% −23
89 East Carolina L 19–26 @ Tulane 24% −24
90 UCF L 11–20 @ Cincinnati 24% −24
91 Utah State L 26–44 @ Hawai'i 25% −25
92 Arkansas L 31–34 @ Tennessee 28% −28
93 Auburn L 10–20 vs Georgia 29% −29
94 Oklahoma L 6–23 vs Texas 34% −34
95 Florida State L 31–34 vs Pittsburgh 34% −34
96 Sam Houston L 27–29 vs Jacksonville State 36% −36
97 Arizona L 27–33 vs BYU 37% −37
98 Air Force L 48–51 @ UNLV 38% −38
99 Illinois L 16–34 vs Ohio State 39% −39
100 Oregon L 20–30 vs Indiana 45% −45
101 Georgia Southern L 35–38 vs Southern Miss 46% −46
102 Northern Illinois L 10–16 @ Eastern Michigan 53% −53
103 Iowa State L 17–24 @ Colorado 56% −56
104 Middle Tennessee L 20–22 vs Missouri State 60% −60
105 Texas State L 41–48 vs Troy 69% −69
106 TCU L 28–41 @ Kansas State 69% −69
107 UL Monroe L 8–23 @ Coastal Carolina 69% −69
108 Missouri L 24–27 vs Alabama 70% −70
109 Purdue L 20–27 @ Minnesota 75% −75
110 Toledo L 23–28 @ Bowling Green 79% −79
111 Penn State L 21–22 vs Northwestern 81% −81
112 Temple L 31–32 vs Navy 85% −85