Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Oklahoma vs Texas, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas beat Oklahoma 23–6, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Oklahoma had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Oklahoma.
Before kickoff Texas was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:49 left): Texas converted 3rd & 8, worth 8 points of win probability to Texas.
Final
 Oklahoma Sooners | 6 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Texas lucky · −34 Oklahoma
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma wins 3, Texas wins 7.
- 1 OU 14 TEX 0
- 2 OU 10 TEX 3
- 3 OU 6 TEX 3
- 4 OU 17 TEX 19
- 5 OU 10 TEX 14
- 6 OU 17 TEX 24
- 7 OU 0 TEX 10
- 8 OU 3 TEX 17
- 9 OU 0 TEX 17
- 10 OU 5 TEX 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma wins 34% of them, Texas 66%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 4.1% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 9.9% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 7.7% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 24.2% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Texas by 17+ | 14.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sandell, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- M. Shipley, 55 yds missed · 46% expected
- T. Sandell, 41 yds made · 73% expected
- M. Shipley, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Shipley, 48 yds made · 58% expected
- M. Shipley, 56 yds missed · 45% expected
- M. Shipley, 39 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma 5 for 35 yards, Texas 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:15 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 11:00 | Offside on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEX +0.8 pts |
| Q1 10:28 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | +3% OU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:00 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | +2% OU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.3 pts |
| Q4 14:00 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards | +7% TEX +2.0 pts |
| Q4 11:25 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards | +2% TEX +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:30 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +6% OU | OU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:30 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% OU | OU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 11:50 | Texas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 7:49 | Texas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% TEX | TEX: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 5:30 | Texas converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% TEX | TEX: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 4:00 | Texas converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% TEX | TEX: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 14:00 | Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% TEX | TEX: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 9:54 | Return touchdown by TexasSpecial teams | +7% TEX | TEX: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma 0% · Texas 100%
- Final margin
- Texas by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas by 19.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma 34% · Texas 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Oklahoma · 
Texas
More from Week 7 2025
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Georgia at Auburn UGA 20–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Arkansas at Tennessee TENN 34–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Washington State at Ole Miss MISS 24–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- South Carolina at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Florida at Texas A&M TA&M 34–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner