Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
South Carolina at LSU, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
LSU beat South Carolina 20–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, LSU wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff LSU was a 71% favorite.
Final
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 10 |
|---|---|
 LSU Tigers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 LSU about even · −5 South Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Carolina wins 1, LSU wins 9.
- 1 SC 24 LSU 19
- 2 SC 23 LSU 26
- 3 SC 10 LSU 17
- 4 SC 5 LSU 17
- 5 SC 6 LSU 21
- 6 SC 7 LSU 27
- 7 SC 0 LSU 24
- 8 SC 17 LSU 45
- 9 SC 10 LSU 42
- 10 SC 14 LSU 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Carolina wins 5% of them, LSU 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Carolina by 17+ | 0.4% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 4.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 16.2% |
| LSU by 17+ | 68.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Ramos, 28 yds made · 91% expected
- W. Joyce, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
- W. Joyce, 47 yds made · 59% expected
- D. Ramos, 22 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: South Carolina 13 for 98 yards, LSU 5 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:21 | Offside on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:38 | Pass Interference on South Carolina, 15 yards | +1% LSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:01 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on LSU, 0 yards | 0% SC 0.0 pts |
| Q2 12:17 | Pass Interference on LSU, 14 yards | +4% SC +1.7 pts |
| Q2 10:48 | Illegal Snap on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:32 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:10 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:21 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SC +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:48 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +1% SC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | Intentional Grounding on South Carolina, 20 yards | +3% LSU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | +3% LSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:39 | Offside on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 6:47 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +3% SC +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:02 | Illegal Snap on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:30 | False Start on South Carolina, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% LSU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:43 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:21 | Intentional Grounding on South Carolina, 13 yards | +6% LSU +1.9 pts |
When it happened
LSU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:57 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% SC | SC: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 1:51 | LSU fumbled and South Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% SC | LSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:39 | W. Joyce made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before | +4% SC | SC: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 4:00 | LSU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% LSU | LSU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 0:00 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% SC | SC: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:21 | Intentional Grounding on South Carolina, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LSU | LSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 6:25 | South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% LSU | SC: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 5:43 | South Carolina was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% LSU | SC: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Carolina 25% · LSU 75%
- Final margin
- LSU by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for LSU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- LSU by 4.3
- Replay with same day's form
- South Carolina 5% · LSU 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
South Carolina · 
LSU
More from Week 7 2025
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Oklahoma vs Texas TEX 23–6 · replay 66% for the winner
- Georgia at Auburn UGA 20–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Arkansas at Tennessee TENN 34–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Washington State at Ole Miss MISS 24–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida at Texas A&M TA&M 34–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner