Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Arkansas at Tennessee, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Tennessee beat Arkansas 34–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Arkansas had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Arkansas.
Before kickoff Tennessee was a 74% favorite.
Final
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 31 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Volunteers | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Tennessee lucky · −28 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas wins 3, Tennessee wins 7.
- 1 ARK 55 TENN 35
- 2 ARK 35 TENN 26
- 3 ARK 45 TENN 42
- 4 ARK 38 TENN 41
- 5 ARK 38 TENN 45
- 6 ARK 21 TENN 32
- 7 ARK 31 TENN 45
- 8 ARK 30 TENN 49
- 9 ARK 23 TENN 47
- 10 ARK 10 TENN 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas wins 28% of them, Tennessee 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas by 17+ | 6.3% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 12.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Tennessee by 1–8 | 21.7% |
| Tennessee by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Tennessee by 17+ | 31.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Starzyk, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- M. Gilbert, 37 yds made · 79% expected
- M. Gilbert, 50 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Arkansas 1 for 10 yards, Tennessee 10 for 78 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:28 | Illegal Formation on Tennessee, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% ARK +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:33 | Personal Foul on Tennessee, 15 yards | +2% ARK +1.3 pts |
| Q2 13:36 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:42 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:43 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARK +1.1 pts |
| Q3 12:29 | Personal Foul on Tennessee, 15 yards | +3% ARK +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:39 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards | +4% ARK +1.3 pts |
| Q3 5:01 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ARK +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards | +1% TENN +1.7 pts |
| Q4 8:26 | Personal Foul on Tennessee, 9 yards | 0% ARK +1.3 pts |
| Q4 4:58 | Delay of Game on Tennessee, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Tennessee’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:41 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% ARK | ARK: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:18 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% TENN | TENN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 7:15 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:50 | M. Gilbert made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 6 of 10 from 45+ before | +5% TENN | TENN: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 10:19 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% ARK | ARK: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 7:39 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ARK | ARK: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 5:01 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 2:55 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% ARK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas 0% · Tennessee 100%
- Final margin
- Tennessee by 3
- Luck in points
- 17.8 for Arkansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tennessee by 20.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas 28% · Tennessee 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Arkansas · 
Tennessee
More from Week 7 2025
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Oklahoma vs Texas TEX 23–6 · replay 66% for the winner
- Georgia at Auburn UGA 20–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Washington State at Ole Miss MISS 24–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- South Carolina at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Florida at Texas A&M TA&M 34–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner