Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Florida at Texas A&M, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat Florida 34–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas A&M wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Florida Gators | 17 |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M Aggies | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Texas A&M about even · −2 Florida
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida wins 0, Texas A&M wins 10.
- 1 FLA 17 TA&M 22
- 2 FLA 14 TA&M 24
- 3 FLA 17 TA&M 31
- 4 FLA 14 TA&M 31
- 5 FLA 21 TA&M 41
- 6 FLA 21 TA&M 45
- 7 FLA 14 TA&M 42
- 8 FLA 0 TA&M 31
- 9 FLA 3 TA&M 38
- 10 FLA 0 TA&M 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida wins 2% of them, Texas A&M 98%. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 1.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 8.5% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 75.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Bond, 43 yds missed · 69% expected
- R. Bond, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- T. Smack, 45 yds made · 67% expected
- R. Bond, 22 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Florida 6 for 45 yards, Texas A&M 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:40 | Offside on Florida, 0 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:22 | Delay of Game on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FLA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 9:01 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:41 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:10 | Personal Foul on Florida, 15 yards | +1% TA&M +0.9 pts |
| Q4 10:01 | Offside on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:28 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas A&M, 15 yards | 0% FLA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:43 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:32 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | 0% FLA +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Texas A&M’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:48 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:05 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 4:27 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +2% FLA | TA&M: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 4:22 | R. Bond missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +4% FLA | TA&M: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 14:31 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% FLA | TA&M: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 9:57 | Florida converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +4% FLA | FLA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 13:33 | Florida was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% TA&M | FLA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 12:53 | Florida was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% TA&M | FLA: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida 1% · Texas A&M 99%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas A&M by 14.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida 2% · Texas A&M 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Florida · 
Texas A&M
More from Week 7 2025
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Oklahoma vs Texas TEX 23–6 · replay 66% for the winner
- Georgia at Auburn UGA 20–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Arkansas at Tennessee TENN 34–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Washington State at Ole Miss MISS 24–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- South Carolina at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner