SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Florida Gators: luck and expected wins

Florida is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 38th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Florida wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Florida Atlantic	W 66–21	99%	+1
Week 2	vs Campbell	W 52–3	100%	0
Week 3	@ Auburn	W 44–39	73%	+27
Week 4	vs Ole Miss	W 52–28	93%	+7

Wk 1 +1 vs FAU

Wk 2 0 vs CAM

Wk 3 +27 @ AUB

Wk 4 +7 vs MISS

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Florida win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Missouri	Florida by 6.5	66%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs South Carolina	Florida by 15.1	83%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Texas	Texas by 7.7	32%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Georgia	Georgia by 5.7	37%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Oklahoma	Florida by 9.8	72%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Kentucky	Florida by 6.3	65%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Vanderbilt	Florida by 13.4	79%
Week 13 · Nov 27	at Florida State	Florida by 11.6	75%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Florida’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.03	+5.2
3rd & 4th downs	+0.02	+7.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Florida takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	@ Auburn	W 44–39	73%	+27
2025 Week 14	vs Florida State	W 40–21	78%	+22
2025 Week 8	vs Mississippi State	W 23–21	85%	+15
2025 Week 6	vs Texas	W 29–21	86%	+14
2026 Week 4	vs Ole Miss	W 52–28	93%	+7

Unluckiest losses

Losses Florida would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 3	@ LSU	L 10–20	70%	−70
2025 Week 2	vs South Florida	L 16–18	44%	−44
2025 Week 10	vs Georgia	L 20–24	34%	−34
2025 Week 12	@ Ole Miss	L 24–34	26%	−26
2025 Week 13	vs Tennessee	L 11–31	12%	−12

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.4	−1.4	2–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Long Island University	W 55–0	100%	0
Week 2	vs South Florida	L 16–18	44%	−44
Week 3	@ LSU	L 10–20	70%	−70
Week 4	@ Miami	L 7–26	2%	−2
Week 6	vs Texas	W 29–21	86%	+14
Week 7	@ Texas A&M	L 17–34	2%	−2
Week 8	vs Mississippi State	W 23–21	85%	+15
Week 10	vs Georgia	L 20–24	34%	−34
Week 11	@ Kentucky	L 7–38	1%	−1
Week 12	@ Ole Miss	L 24–34	26%	−26
Week 13	vs Tennessee	L 11–31	12%	−12
Week 14	vs Florida State	W 40–21	78%	+22