luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Campbell at Florida, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Florida beat Campbell 52–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida was a 100% favorite.

Final

Campbell Fighting Camels 3
Florida Gators 52

September 12, 2026 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Closing line: Florida −51.5

Luck index 0 Florida about even · 0 Campbell

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Campbell wins 0, Florida wins 10.

  1. 1 CAM 0 FLA 20
  2. 2 CAM 0 FLA 27
  3. 3 CAM 3 FLA 35
  4. 4 CAM 3 FLA 38
  5. 5 CAM 0 FLA 38
  6. 6 CAM 0 FLA 42
  7. 7 CAM 0 FLA 45
  8. 8 CAM 3 FLA 52
  9. 9 CAM 0 FLA 52
  10. 10 CAM 3 FLA 62

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Campbell wins 0% of them, Florida 100%. The line is what actually happened: Florida by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Campbell by 17+0.0%
Campbell by 9–160.0%
Campbell by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Florida by 1–80.8%
Florida by 9–164.6%
Florida by 17+94.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.1 points to Florida: the final margin was Florida by 49, without the luck Florida by 39.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Crabb, 29 yds made · 87% expected
  • P. Durkin, 28 yds made · 89% expected
  • A. Crabb, 36 yds missed · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Campbell 7 for 55 yards, Florida 8 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:23 False Start on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAM +0.7 pts
Q1 5:25 False Start on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FLA 0.0 pts
Q2 14:55 False Start on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAM +0.4 pts
Q2 8:08 Illegal Block on Florida, 10 yards 0% CAM +0.6 pts
Q2 7:12 Illegal Substitution on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FLA +0.4 pts
Q2 1:25 Offside on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FLA +0.7 pts
Q3 14:54 Holding on Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAM +3.3 pts
Q3 14:16 Unnecessary Roughness on Florida, 15 yards 0% CAM +0.9 pts
Q3 12:16 Roughing the Passer on Florida, 15 yards 0% CAM +1.6 pts
Q3 9:43 Pass Interference on Campbell, 15 yards 0% FLA +0.7 pts
Q3 9:06 Unnecessary Roughness on Florida, 15 yards 0% CAM +0.9 pts
Q3 4:57 Unnecessary Roughness on Campbell, 15 yards 0% FLA +0.9 pts
Q3 1:20 Holding on Florida, 10 yards 0% CAM +0.6 pts
Q3 0:42 Holding on Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAM +1.7 pts
Q4 1:51 Holding on Florida, 10 yards 0% CAM +0.6 pts

When it happened

Florida’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida was ahead in it, below while Campbell was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:23 Campbell was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on Campbell, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% FLA CAM: Field goal
2 Q1 12:18 A. Crabb made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +0% FLA CAM: Punt
3 Q1 10:57 Florida converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +0% FLA FLA: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:17 Campbell converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% CAM CAM: Punt
5 Q1 6:02 Campbell was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% FLA CAM: Punt
6 Q1 1:53 Florida was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% CAM FLA: Field goal
7 Q2 14:56 Campbell was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% FLA CAM: Turnover
8 Q2 14:55 False Start on Campbell, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% CAM FLA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Campbell 0% · Florida 100%

Final margin
Florida by 49
Luck in points
9.1 for Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida by 39.9
Replay with same day's form
Campbell 0% · Florida 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Campbell · Florida

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