Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Charlotte at Ole Miss, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Ole Miss beat Charlotte 41–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ole Miss wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Charlotte 49ers | 9 |
|---|---|
 Ole Miss Rebels | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Ole Miss about even · −5 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charlotte wins 0, Ole Miss wins 10.
- 1 CLT 24 MISS 27
- 2 CLT 24 MISS 33
- 3 CLT 21 MISS 34
- 4 CLT 27 MISS 42
- 5 CLT 21 MISS 40
- 6 CLT 24 MISS 45
- 7 CLT 6 MISS 31
- 8 CLT 14 MISS 45
- 9 CLT 10 MISS 45
- 10 CLT 7 MISS 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charlotte wins 5% of them, Ole Miss 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 15.7% |
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 70.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- I. Kelly, 44 yds blocked · 65% expected
- L. Carneiro, 57 yds made · 37% expected
- L. Carneiro, 41 yds made · 66% expected
- I. Kelly, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- I. Kelly, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- I. Kelly, 28 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Charlotte 7 for 39 yards, Ole Miss 6 for 47 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:59 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | 0% MISS +1.5 pts |
| Q1 6:03 | False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:51 | Pass Interference on Charlotte, 4 yards | 0% MISS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:38 | False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Delay of Game on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:14 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +1.2 pts |
| Q3 8:50 | False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +1.8 pts |
| Q3 4:33 | Face Mask on Ole Miss, 13 yards | 0% CLT +2.9 pts |
| Q3 3:19 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 4 yards | 0% CLT +2.3 pts |
| Q3 3:14 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +1.2 pts |
| Q4 14:10 | Roughing the Passer on Ole Miss, 15 yards | 0% CLT +1.9 pts |
When it happened
Ole Miss’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:59 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MISS | MISS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:03 | Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on Ole Miss, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% CLT | MISS: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:15 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% MISS | CLT: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:35 | I. Kelly had a 44-yard field goal blockedKicks · 65% expected for him | +0% MISS | CLT: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 12:19 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +0% MISS | CLT: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 4:33 | Face Mask on Ole Miss, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +0% CLT | CLT: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 3:19 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 4 yardsJudgment calls | +0% CLT | CLT: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 3:14 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charlotte 0% · Ole Miss 100%
- Final margin
- Ole Miss by 32
- Luck in points
- 13.6 for Ole Miss
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ole Miss by 18.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Charlotte 5% · Ole Miss 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Charlotte · 
Ole Miss
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner