SEC · 2026 season, in progress

South Carolina Gamecocks: luck and expected wins

South Carolina is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.3 wins. Luck cost 0.3: the 43rd-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often South Carolina wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Kent State	W 57–0	100%	0
Week 2	vs Towson	W 45–9	97%	+3
Week 3	vs Mississippi State	L 34–41	27%	−27
Week 4	@ Alabama	L 18–49	4%	−4

Wk 1 0 vs KENT

Wk 2 +3 vs TOW

Wk 3 −27 vs MSST

Wk 4 −4 @ ALA

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	South Carolina win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Kentucky	South Carolina by 0.7	52%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Florida	Florida by 15.1	17%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Tennessee	Tennessee by 6.8	34%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Oklahoma	Oklahoma by 8.4	31%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Texas A&M	Texas A&M by 4.0	41%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Arkansas	South Carolina by 3.3	58%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Georgia	Georgia by 14.3	20%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Clemson	Clemson by 0.3	49%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in South Carolina’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	−0.12	+7.3

Luckiest wins

Wins South Carolina takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 1	vs Virginia Tech	W 24–11	51%	+49
2025 Week 2	vs South Carolina State	W 38–10	68%	+32
2025 Week 5	vs Kentucky	W 35–13	95%	+5
2026 Week 2	vs Towson	W 45–9	97%	+3
2026 Week 1	vs Kent State	W 57–0	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses South Carolina would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	vs Alabama	L 22–29	62%	−62
2025 Week 14	vs Clemson	L 14–28	53%	−53
2025 Week 3	vs Vanderbilt	L 7–31	33%	−33
2026 Week 3	vs Mississippi State	L 34–41	27%	−27
2025 Week 8	vs Oklahoma	L 7–26	18%	−18

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.2	−1.2	0–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Virginia Tech	W 24–11	51%	+49
Week 2	vs South Carolina State	W 38–10	68%	+32
Week 3	vs Vanderbilt	L 7–31	33%	−33
Week 4	@ Missouri	L 20–29	8%	−8
Week 5	vs Kentucky	W 35–13	95%	+5
Week 7	@ LSU	L 10–20	5%	−5
Week 8	vs Oklahoma	L 7–26	18%	−18
Week 9	vs Alabama	L 22–29	62%	−62
Week 10	@ Ole Miss	L 14–30	14%	−14
Week 12	@ Texas A&M	L 30–31	15%	−15
Week 13	vs Coastal Carolina	W 51–7	100%	0
Week 14	vs Clemson	L 14–28	53%	−53