Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Alabama at South Carolina, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Alabama beat South Carolina 29–22, but the replays lean toward South Carolina: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Alabama.
Alabama won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against South Carolina it would win 73% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers
Before kickoff Alabama was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:34 left): Alabama converted 3rd & 10, worth 15 points of win probability to Alabama.
Final
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 29 |
|---|---|
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Alabama very lucky · −62 South Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Alabama wins 4, South Carolina wins 6.
- 1 ALA 22 SC 3
- 2 ALA 27 SC 14
- 3 ALA 24 SC 17
- 4 ALA 17 SC 14
- 5 ALA 14 SC 17
- 6 ALA 7 SC 13
- 7 ALA 10 SC 20
- 8 ALA 0 SC 13
- 9 ALA 13 SC 30
- 10 ALA 3 SC 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Alabama won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against South Carolina it would win 73% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for Alabama: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.10 | worse by 0.08 |
| Alabama defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.06 | better by 0.04 |
| South Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.04 | worse by 0.02 |
| South Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.07 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Alabama wins 38% of them, South Carolina 62%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Alabama by 17+ | 5.6% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 11.0% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 16.4% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| South Carolina by 17+ | 17.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Joyce, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- W. Joyce, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
- W. Joyce, 34 yds made · 81% expected
- W. Joyce, 47 yds made · 59% expected
Penalties: Alabama 6 for 52 yards, South Carolina 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:11 | Offside on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SC +1.8 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ALA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:10 | Holding on Alabama, 10 yards | +1% SC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:27 | Illegal Substitution on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ALA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:42 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | +2% ALA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:20 | Unnecessary Roughness on Alabama, 12 yards | +3% SC +1.5 pts |
| Q2 6:02 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | +2% ALA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:30 | Personal Foul on Alabama, 15 yards | +8% SC +3.0 pts |
| Q3 3:20 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | +3% ALA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:16 | Offside on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SC +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Offside on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SC +0.3 pts |
When it happened
South Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:17 | Return touchdown by AlabamaSpecial teams | +13% ALA | ALA: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 7:17 | South Carolina converted 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +8% SC | SC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 7:30 | Personal Foul on Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% SC | SC: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 13:28 | Alabama fumbled and South Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% SC | ALA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 8:56 | Alabama converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:16 | Alabama’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedOffside on Alabama, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% ALA | ALA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:39 | South Carolina fumbled and Alabama recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% ALA | SC: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:34 | Alabama converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +15% ALA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Alabama 77% · South Carolina 23%
- Final margin
- Alabama by 7
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 5.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Alabama 38% · South Carolina 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Alabama · 
South Carolina
More from Week 9 2025
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- Texas at Mississippi State TEX 45–38 · replay 39% for the winner
- Missouri at Vanderbilt VAN 17–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Tennessee at Kentucky TENN 56–34 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texas A&M at LSU TA&M 49–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner