luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Tennessee at Kentucky, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Tennessee beat Kentucky 56–34, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Tennessee was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:56 left): Return touchdown by Tennessee, worth 11 points of win probability to Tennessee.

Final

Tennessee Volunteers 56
Kentucky Wildcats 34

October 25, 2025 · Kroger Field · Closing line: Tennessee −7.5

Luck index +7 Tennessee about even · −7 Kentucky

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tennessee wins 9, Kentucky wins 1.

  1. 1 TENN 52 UK 7
  2. 2 TENN 41 UK 7
  3. 3 TENN 38 UK 7
  4. 4 TENN 40 UK 14
  5. 5 TENN 38 UK 17
  6. 6 TENN 31 UK 13
  7. 7 TENN 52 UK 37
  8. 8 TENN 20 UK 10
  9. 9 TENN 41 UK 37
  10. 10 TENN 7 UK 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tennessee wins 93% of them, Kentucky 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Tennessee by 17+67.7%
Tennessee by 9–1615.0%
Tennessee by 1–810.1%
Level after regulation1.1%
Kentucky by 1–84.2%
Kentucky by 9–161.4%
Kentucky by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to Kentucky: the final margin was Tennessee by 22, without the luck Tennessee by 24.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Tennessee 6 for 56 yards, Kentucky 8 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:29 Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards +3% TENN +1.6 pts
Q1 9:17 Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards +2% TENN +1.6 pts
Q1 8:29 Offside on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% UK +1.8 pts
Q1 3:39 Delay of Game on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TENN +0.6 pts
Q1 2:51 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards +1% UK +0.6 pts
Q1 0:07 Unnecessary Roughness on Kentucky, 6 yards +1% TENN +1.1 pts
Q2 11:19 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards +1% UK +1.3 pts
Q2 10:12 Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards +1% TENN +0.6 pts
Q2 6:13 Offside on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UK +0.7 pts
Q2 3:17 Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards +1% TENN +0.9 pts
Q3 12:48 Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards +2% TENN +1.5 pts
Q3 5:54 Holding on Kentucky, 2 yards 0% TENN +1.8 pts
Q3 3:48 Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards 0% UK +3.4 pts
Q4 9:12 Pass Interference on Tennessee, 11 yards 0% UK +2.4 pts

When it happened

Kentucky’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kentucky was ahead in it, below while Tennessee was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:29 Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% TENN TENN: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:41 Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +2% UK TENN: Punt
3 Q1 9:17 Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% TENN TENN: Punt
4 Q1 8:29 Offside on Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% UK UK: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:56 Return touchdown by TennesseeSpecial teams +11% TENN TENN: Punt
6 Q2 6:51 Kentucky converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +2% UK UK: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:24 Kentucky converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +2% UK UK: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:35 Kentucky converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +2% UK UK: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tennessee 100% · Kentucky 0%

Final margin
Tennessee by 22
Luck in points
2.5 for Kentucky
Luck-adjusted margin
Tennessee by 24.5
Replay with same day's form
Tennessee 93% · Kentucky 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Tennessee · Kentucky

More from Week 9 2025

Every week 9 game, 2025