Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Texas A&M at LSU, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat LSU 49–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas A&M wins 10 of 10.
An off day for LSU: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Texas A&M it would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers
Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:47 left): Return touchdown by Texas A&M, worth 14 points of win probability to Texas A&M.
Final
 Texas A&M Aggies | 49 |
|---|---|
 LSU Tigers | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Texas A&M about even · −3 LSU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas A&M wins 10, LSU wins 0.
- 1 TA&M 49 LSU 0
- 2 TA&M 62 LSU 21
- 3 TA&M 51 LSU 14
- 4 TA&M 42 LSU 10
- 5 TA&M 38 LSU 10
- 6 TA&M 52 LSU 28
- 7 TA&M 37 LSU 16
- 8 TA&M 37 LSU 21
- 9 TA&M 27 LSU 16
- 10 TA&M 34 LSU 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for LSU
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Texas A&M it would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
43 points apart for LSU: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M offenseEPA per play gained | +0.50 | +0.12 | better by 0.39 |
| Texas A&M defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.02 | worse by 0.01 |
| LSU offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.11 | worse by 0.08 |
| LSU defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.50 | +0.08 | worse by 0.42 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas A&M wins 97% of them, LSU 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 79.3% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 11.0% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 1.7% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| LSU by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Ramos, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Texas A&M 6 for 65 yards, LSU 4 for 47 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:26 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 15 yards | +1% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:18 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:30 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:05 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas A&M, 15 yards | +4% LSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% LSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:19 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:47 | Holding on LSU, 27 yards | +4% TA&M +1.7 pts |
| Q3 5:54 | Illegal Formation on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TA&M +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:07 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +2% TA&M +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas A&M, 15 yards | 0% LSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
LSU’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:51 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:40 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% TA&M | TA&M: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 13:15 | Texas A&M fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% TA&M | TA&M: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 8:14 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% TA&M | TA&M: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 5:05 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas A&M, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:41 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 9:33 | LSU was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% TA&M | LSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 8:47 | Holding on LSU, 27 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by Texas A&MSpecial teams | +14% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas A&M 98% · LSU 2%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 24
- Luck in points
- 13.3 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas A&M by 10.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas A&M 97% · LSU 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Texas A&M · 
LSU
More from Week 9 2025
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- Texas at Mississippi State TEX 45–38 · replay 39% for the winner
- Missouri at Vanderbilt VAN 17–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Tennessee at Kentucky TENN 56–34 · replay 93% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner