Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Missouri at Vanderbilt, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Vanderbilt beat Missouri 17–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:02 left): Missouri fumbled and Vanderbilt recovered, worth 21 points of win probability to Vanderbilt.
Final
 Missouri Tigers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Vanderbilt Commodores | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Vanderbilt lucky · −33 Missouri
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri wins 3, Vanderbilt wins 7.
- 1 MIZ 20 VAN 3
- 2 MIZ 27 VAN 17
- 3 MIZ 17 VAN 14
- 4 MIZ 24 VAN 27
- 5 MIZ 13 VAN 19
- 6 MIZ 6 VAN 14
- 7 MIZ 17 VAN 28
- 8 MIZ 13 VAN 28
- 9 MIZ 7 VAN 27
- 10 MIZ 3 VAN 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri wins 33% of them, Vanderbilt 67%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri by 17+ | 5.7% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Vanderbilt by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Vanderbilt by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Vanderbilt by 17+ | 22.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Meyer, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- B. Taylor, 38 yds made · 81% expected
- R. Meyer, 29 yds missed · 87% expected
Penalties: Missouri 8 for 88 yards, Vanderbilt 6 for 58 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 15:00 | Face Mask on Missouri, 15 yards | +4% VAN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Delay of Game on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | +2% MIZ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:14 | Tripping on Missouri, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% VAN +2.5 pts |
| Q2 2:55 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +3% VAN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 3:21 | Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 7 yards | +5% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:02 | Roughing the Passer on Missouri, 15 yards | +7% VAN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 4:57 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% MIZ +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:28 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yards | +5% VAN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | Tripping on Missouri, 13 yards | +2% VAN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 16 yards | +2% MIZ +1.1 pts |
| Q4 0:50 | Intentional Grounding on Missouri, 0 yards | 0% VAN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:50 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VAN +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Vanderbilt’s chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 7:14 | Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedTripping on Missouri, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% VAN | MIZ: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 11:15 | Missouri was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +7% VAN | MIZ: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 4:04 | R. Meyer missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +11% VAN | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 10:10 | Missouri converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedMissouri converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +9% MIZ | MIZ: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 7:02 | Missouri fumbled and Vanderbilt recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Roughing the Passer on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +21% VAN | MIZ: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 5:22 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:57 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% MIZ | MIZ: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 4:28 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% VAN | VAN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri 33% · Vanderbilt 67%
- Final margin
- Vanderbilt by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Vanderbilt
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vanderbilt by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri 33% · Vanderbilt 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Missouri · 
Vanderbilt
More from Week 9 2025
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- Texas at Mississippi State TEX 45–38 · replay 39% for the winner
- Tennessee at Kentucky TENN 56–34 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texas A&M at LSU TA&M 49–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner