Week 9 2025 · October 23, 2025
South Alabama at Georgia State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
South Alabama beat Georgia State 38–31, but the replays lean toward Georgia State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to South Alabama.
Before kickoff South Alabama was a 65% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 4:11 left): Georgia State fumbled and South Alabama recovered, worth 8 points of win probability to South Alabama. The biggest single swing (Q4, 5:39 left): South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 5.
Final
 South Alabama Jaguars | 38 |
|---|---|
 Georgia State Panthers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 South Alabama very lucky · −61 Georgia State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Alabama wins 4, Georgia State wins 6.
- 1 USA 35 GAST 14
- 2 USA 35 GAST 24
- 3 USA 21 GAST 14
- 4 USA 24 GAST 21
- 5 USA 31 GAST 34
- 6 USA 23 GAST 28
- 7 USA 28 GAST 37
- 8 USA 16 GAST 28
- 9 USA 28 GAST 45
- 10 USA 14 GAST 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Alabama wins 39% of them, Georgia State 61%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Alabama by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Alabama by 17+ | 8.2% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 9.3% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 17.0% |
| Level after regulation | 5.1% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 22.3% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 16.7% |
| Georgia State by 17+ | 21.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. McAlister, 49 yds missed · 55% expected
- H. DiBoyan, 35 yds missed · 80% expected
- L. Rickman, 25 yds made · 88% expected
- D. Little, 23 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: South Alabama 5 for 50 yards, Georgia State 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:55 | Ineligible Downfield on South Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% GAST +2.4 pts |
| Q1 1:35 | Illegal Snap on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GAST +5.0 pts |
| Q3 12:47 | Delay of Game on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GAST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:06 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USA +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:11 | Personal Foul on South Alabama, 15 yards | +7% GAST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:42 | Pass Interference on South Alabama, 15 yards | +1% GAST +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Georgia State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:12 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 0:10 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% GAST | GAST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 1:51 | Georgia State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +4% GAST | GAST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 11:12 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +5% GAST | GAST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:38 | Georgia State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% GAST | GAST: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 5:39 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedD. Little made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +12% GAST | USA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:11 | The game turned hereGeorgia State fumbled and South Alabama recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Personal Foul on South Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% USA | GAST: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:53 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +9% GAST | USA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Alabama 82% · Georgia State 18%
- Final margin
- South Alabama by 7
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Alabama by 5.6
- Replay with same day's form
- South Alabama 39% · Georgia State 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
South Alabama · 
Georgia State
More from Week 9 2025
- App State at Old Dominion ODU 24–21 · replay 56% for the winner
- Louisiana at Troy TROY 35–23 · replay 62% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Arkansas State ARST 34–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Southern Miss USM 49–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner