Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Arkansas State beat Georgia Southern 34–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas State wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Georgia Southern: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff Georgia Southern was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:17 left): Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to Georgia Southern.
Final
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 24 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Arkansas State about even · −14 Georgia Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 1, Arkansas State wins 9.
- 1 GASO 34 ARST 27
- 2 GASO 38 ARST 41
- 3 GASO 42 ARST 49
- 4 GASO 0 ARST 10
- 5 GASO 7 ARST 21
- 6 GASO 20 ARST 38
- 7 GASO 19 ARST 40
- 8 GASO 10 ARST 35
- 9 GASO 3 ARST 33
- 10 GASO 7 ARST 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Georgia Southern
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for Georgia Southern: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.09 | better by 0.07 |
| Georgia Southern defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.14 | worse by 0.17 |
| Arkansas State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | −0.00 | better by 0.31 |
| Arkansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.08 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Southern wins 14% of them, Arkansas State 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 2.8% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 14.5% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 51.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Van Andel, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- T. Bryant, 21 yds made · 94% expected
- C. Van Andel, 27 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Georgia Southern 9 for 103 yards, Arkansas State 9 for 82 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:13 | Personal Foul on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +3% GASO +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:10 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +2% ARST +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:34 | Kick Catch Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +2% ARST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:17 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% GASO +4.0 pts |
| Q2 9:06 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +2% ARST +1.1 pts |
| Q2 7:56 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | +3% GASO +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:53 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | +1% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:02 | Chop Block on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +2% ARST +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:59 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | 0% ARST +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +1% ARST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:09 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% GASO +1.3 pts |
| Q3 8:51 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | +3% GASO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:33 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GASO +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:06 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 5 yards | +1% ARST +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:56 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 3 yards | +4% ARST +1.2 pts |
| Q4 6:49 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +6% ARST +1.8 pts |
| Q4 6:35 | Targeting on Arkansas State, 12 yards | +3% GASO +1.5 pts |
| Q4 0:06 | Offside on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas State’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:13 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedPersonal Foul on Arkansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:17 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% GASO | GASO: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 9:11 | Arkansas State fumbled and Georgia Southern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% GASO | ARST: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 12:38 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 10:42 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 7:40 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% GASO | GASO: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 4:33 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedFalse Start on Arkansas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% GASO | ARST: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 2:09 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% ARST | ARST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Southern 19% · Arkansas State 81%
- Final margin
- Arkansas State by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for Arkansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas State by 4.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Southern 14% · Arkansas State 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Georgia Southern · 
Arkansas State
More from Week 9 2025
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner
- App State at Old Dominion ODU 24–21 · replay 56% for the winner
- Louisiana at Troy TROY 35–23 · replay 62% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Southern Miss USM 49–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner