UL Monroe at Southern Miss, Week 9 2025: who deserved it?

Final

UL Monroe Warhawks	21
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	49

October 25, 2025 · M. M. Roberts Stadium · Closing line: Southern Miss −14

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +1 Southern Miss about even · −1 UL Monroe

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 0, Southern Miss wins 10.

1 ULM 14 USM 24
2 ULM 17 USM 34
3 ULM 14 USM 35
4 ULM 17 USM 42
5 ULM 13 USM 42
6 ULM 3 USM 35
7 ULM 7 USM 43
8 ULM 7 USM 48
9 ULM 0 USM 45
10 ULM 6 USM 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UL Monroe wins 1% of them, Southern Miss 99%. The line is what actually happened: Southern Miss by 28.

Actual: Southern Miss by 28 494235282114707142128354249 ← UL Monroe win by Southern Miss win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
UL Monroe by 17+	0.0%
UL Monroe by 9–16	0.1%
UL Monroe by 1–8	0.3%
Level after regulation	0.2%
Southern Miss by 1–8	2.5%
Southern Miss by 9–16	5.6%
Southern Miss by 17+	91.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Kicks +6% USM

3rd & 4th downs +5% ULM

Pre-snap flags +2% USM

All luck +3% USM

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to Southern Miss: the final margin was Southern Miss by 28, without the luck Southern Miss by 25.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: UL Monroe 11 for 78 yards, Southern Miss 3 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 5:37	Face Mask on UL Monroe, 8 yards	+2% USM +1.2 pts
Q1 5:28	Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% USM +0.9 pts
Q1 3:49	Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 13 yards	+2% ULM +1.5 pts
Q2 14:41	Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% USM +1.3 pts
Q2 8:27	Roughing the Passer on UL Monroe, 15 yards	0% USM +0.6 pts
Q2 4:05	Face Mask on Southern Miss, 15 yards	+1% ULM +1.6 pts
Q2 3:42	Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 15 yards	+1% ULM +1.6 pts
Q3 4:41	Delay of Game on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% USM +0.7 pts
Q4 12:54	False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% ULM +0.7 pts
Q4 9:51	Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% USM +2.0 pts
Q4 6:21	Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% USM +0.5 pts
Q4 5:45	Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% USM +0.7 pts
Q4 4:19	Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards	0% USM +2.4 pts
Q4 2:23	Illegal Formation on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% USM +0.3 pts

When it happened

Southern Miss’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Southern Miss 50% UL Monroe Q1Q2Q3Q4 15678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Southern Miss was ahead in it, below while UL Monroe was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 13:23	UL Monroe converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected	+2% ULM	ULM: Touchdown
2	Q1 3:49	Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 13 yardsJudgment calls	+2% ULM	ULM: Missed field goal
3	Q1 2:57	UL Monroe converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected	+5% ULM	ULM: Missed field goal
4	Q1 1:49	UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected	+2% USM	ULM: Missed field goal
5	Q1 1:47	J. Chambliss missed a 28-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him	+5% USM	ULM: Punt
6	Q2 14:27	Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected	+2% ULM	USM: Touchdown
7	Q2 12:38	Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected	+3% ULM	USM: Touchdown
8	Q2 2:47	UL Monroe converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected	+2% ULM	ULM: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UL Monroe 0% · Southern Miss 100%

Final margin: Southern Miss by 28
Luck in points: 2.4 for Southern Miss
Luck-adjusted margin: Southern Miss by 25.6
Replay with same day's form: UL Monroe 1% · Southern Miss 99% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

UL Monroe converted 3rd & 5Q1 13:23
Pass Interference on Southern Miss, 13 yardsQ1 3:49
UL Monroe converted 3rd & 10Q1 2:57
UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 8Q1 1:49
J. Chambliss missed a 28-yard field goalQ1 1:47
Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 2Q2 14:27
Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 4Q2 12:38
UL Monroe converted 3rd & 8Q2 2:47

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · UL Monroe · Southern Miss

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