luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Ole Miss at Oklahoma, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Ole Miss beat Oklahoma 34–26, but the replays lean toward Oklahoma: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Ole Miss.

Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:46 left): Ole Miss was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to Oklahoma.

Final

Ole Miss Rebels 34
Oklahoma Sooners 26

October 25, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Closing line: Oklahoma −5.5

Luck index +62 Ole Miss very lucky · −62 Oklahoma

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ole Miss wins 4, Oklahoma wins 6.

  1. 1 MISS 28 OU 6
  2. 2 MISS 13 OU 0
  3. 3 MISS 17 OU 10
  4. 4 MISS 17 OU 14
  5. 5 MISS 7 OU 10
  6. 6 MISS 14 OU 21
  7. 7 MISS 13 OU 23
  8. 8 MISS 7 OU 19
  9. 9 MISS 6 OU 24
  10. 10 MISS 10 OU 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ole Miss wins 38% of them, Oklahoma 62%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ole Miss by 17+7.6%
Ole Miss by 9–1610.6%
Ole Miss by 1–815.4%
Level after regulation5.1%
Oklahoma by 1–822.7%
Oklahoma by 9–1618.1%
Oklahoma by 17+20.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.1 points to Ole Miss: the final margin was Ole Miss by 8, without the luck Oklahoma by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Carneiro, 45 yds made · 64% expected
  • T. Sandell, 42 yds made · 72% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 22 yds made · 95% expected
  • T. Sandell, 42 yds made · 72% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 29 yds made · 89% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 37 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ole Miss 6 for 50 yards, Oklahoma 8 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:20 Illegal Substitution on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OU +0.6 pts
Q1 9:36 Holding on Oklahoma, 10 yards +2% MISS +1.1 pts
Q1 6:23 Illegal Substitution on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MISS +0.7 pts
Q2 12:30 Offside on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MISS +0.7 pts
Q2 11:25 Holding on Oklahoma, 5 yards +1% MISS +0.3 pts
Q2 11:06 Illegal Formation on Oklahoma, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% MISS +0.6 pts
Q2 10:43 False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OU +0.6 pts
Q3 13:30 Illegal Substitution on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MISS +1.0 pts
Q3 12:39 Ineligible Downfield on Oklahoma, 5 yards +1% MISS +0.5 pts
Q3 11:16 Illegal Substitution on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OU +0.8 pts
Q3 8:47 Roughing the Passer on Oklahoma, 15 yards +5% MISS +2.2 pts
Q3 6:01 Delay of Game on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OU +0.3 pts
Q3 3:33 Face Mask on Ole Miss, 15 yards +6% OU +1.6 pts
Q4 2:28 Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards +4% OU +1.7 pts

When it happened

Oklahoma’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oklahoma was ahead in it, below while Ole Miss was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:45 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% MISS MISS: Field goal
2 Q2 8:08 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% MISS MISS: Field goal
3 Q2 4:32 Oklahoma was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +8% MISS OU: Punt
4 Q3 12:46 Ole Miss was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +10% OU MISS: Field goal
5 Q3 10:18 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% MISS MISS: Field goal
6 Q3 0:02 Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% OU MISS: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:34 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% MISS MISS: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:04 Oklahoma fumbled and Ole Miss recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MISS OU: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ole Miss 39% · Oklahoma 61%

Final margin
Ole Miss by 8
Luck in points
10.1 for Ole Miss
Luck-adjusted margin
Oklahoma by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Ole Miss 38% · Oklahoma 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Ole Miss · Oklahoma

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