luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · October 21, 2025–October 25, 2025

Week 9 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

14 upsets in Week 9 2025. The biggest: Rice beat UConn 37–34 as 25% underdogs, and deserved it. 10 of 53 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: South Alabama beat Georgia State 38–31 in a game it wins 39% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 9 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 14 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rice 37–34 vs UConn 25% 66% Deserved
Akron 24–16 @ Buffalo 26% 30% Lucky
Kent State 24–21 vs Bowling Green 31% 38% Lucky
Houston 24–16 @ Arizona State 32% 54% Coin flip
Western Kentucky 28–27 @ Louisiana Tech 36% 47% Coin flip
Ole Miss 34–26 @ Oklahoma 36% 38% Lucky
Wake Forest 13–12 vs SMU 36% 70% Deserved
Kansas State 42–17 @ Kansas 41% 97% Deserved
Memphis 34–31 vs South Florida 41% 28% Lucky
Rutgers 27–24 @ Purdue 44% 48% Coin flip
Auburn 33–24 @ Arkansas 44% 30% Lucky
BYU 41–27 @ Iowa State 44% 26% Lucky
Washington State 28–7 vs Toledo 46% 92% Deserved
Arkansas State 34–24 vs Georgia Southern 46% 86% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 9 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Virginia W 17–16 @ North Carolina 15% +85
2 BYU W 41–27 @ Iowa State 26% +74
3 Memphis W 34–31 vs South Florida 28% +72
4 Akron W 24–16 @ Buffalo 30% +70
5 Auburn W 33–24 @ Arkansas 30% +70
6 Kent State W 24–21 vs Bowling Green 38% +62
7 Alabama W 29–22 @ South Carolina 38% +62
8 Ole Miss W 34–26 @ Oklahoma 38% +62
9 South Alabama W 38–31 @ Georgia State 39% +61
10 Texas W 45–38 @ Mississippi State 39% +61
11 TCU W 23–17 @ West Virginia 40% +60
12 Delaware W 31–28 vs Middle Tennessee 42% +58
13 Missouri State W 24–17 @ New Mexico State 44% +56
14 Boise State W 24–3 @ Nevada 45% +55
15 Western Kentucky W 28–27 @ Louisiana Tech 47% +53
16 Rutgers W 27–24 @ Purdue 48% +52
17 Houston W 24–16 @ Arizona State 54% +46
18 Old Dominion W 24–21 vs App State 56% +44
19 Washington W 42–25 vs Illinois 58% +42
20 Temple W 38–37 @ Tulsa 60% +40
21 Troy W 35–23 vs Louisiana 62% +38
22 Rice W 37–34 vs UConn 66% +34
23 Vanderbilt W 17–10 vs Missouri 67% +33
24 Northern Illinois W 21–7 vs Ball State 68% +32
25 Wake Forest W 13–12 vs SMU 70% +30
26 Nebraska W 28–21 vs Northwestern 71% +29
27 Ohio W 28–21 @ Eastern Michigan 77% +23
28 New Mexico W 33–14 vs Utah State 77% +23
29 Pittsburgh W 53–34 vs NC State 78% +22
30 Miami (OH) W 26–17 vs Western Michigan 86% +14
31 Arkansas State W 34–24 vs Georgia Southern 86% +14
32 Oregon W 21–7 vs Wisconsin 87% +13
33 Louisville W 38–24 vs Boston College 88% +12
34 Cincinnati W 41–20 vs Baylor 92% +8
35 Iowa W 41–3 vs Minnesota 92% +8
36 Washington State W 28–7 vs Toledo 92% +8
37 Tennessee W 56–34 @ Kentucky 93% +7
38 Michigan W 31–20 @ Michigan State 93% +7
39 Wyoming W 28–0 vs Colorado State 94% +6
40 Texas Tech W 42–0 vs Oklahoma State 96% +4
41 Kansas State W 42–17 @ Kansas 97% +3
42 Virginia Tech W 42–34 vs California 97% +3
43 Georgia Tech W 41–16 vs Syracuse 97% +3
44 Texas A&M W 49–25 @ LSU 97% +3
45 Navy W 42–32 vs Florida Atlantic 98% +2
46 North Texas W 54–20 @ Charlotte 98% +2
47 Kennesaw State W 45–26 @ Florida International 98% +2
48 Southern Miss W 49–21 vs UL Monroe 99% +1
49 Miami W 42–7 vs Stanford 100% 0
50 San Diego State W 23–0 @ Fresno State 100% 0
51 Indiana W 56–6 vs UCLA 100% 0
52 Central Michigan W 38–13 vs Massachusetts 100% 0
53 Utah W 53–7 vs Colorado 100% 0
54 UCLA L 6–56 @ Indiana 0% 0
55 Massachusetts L 13–38 @ Central Michigan 0% 0
56 Colorado L 7–53 @ Utah 0% 0
57 Fresno State L 0–23 vs San Diego State 0% 0
58 Stanford L 7–42 @ Miami 0% 0
59 UL Monroe L 21–49 @ Southern Miss 1% −1
60 Florida International L 26–45 vs Kennesaw State 2% −2
61 Charlotte L 20–54 vs North Texas 2% −2
62 Florida Atlantic L 32–42 @ Navy 2% −2
63 LSU L 25–49 vs Texas A&M 3% −3
64 Syracuse L 16–41 @ Georgia Tech 3% −3
65 California L 34–42 @ Virginia Tech 3% −3
66 Kansas L 17–42 vs Kansas State 3% −3
67 Oklahoma State L 0–42 @ Texas Tech 4% −4
68 Colorado State L 0–28 @ Wyoming 6% −6
69 Michigan State L 20–31 vs Michigan 7% −7
70 Kentucky L 34–56 vs Tennessee 7% −7
71 Toledo L 7–28 @ Washington State 8% −8
72 Minnesota L 3–41 @ Iowa 8% −8
73 Baylor L 20–41 @ Cincinnati 8% −8
74 Boston College L 24–38 @ Louisville 12% −12
75 Wisconsin L 7–21 @ Oregon 13% −13
76 Georgia Southern L 24–34 @ Arkansas State 14% −14
77 Western Michigan L 17–26 @ Miami (OH) 14% −14
78 NC State L 34–53 @ Pittsburgh 22% −22
79 Utah State L 14–33 @ New Mexico 23% −23
80 Eastern Michigan L 21–28 vs Ohio 23% −23
81 Northwestern L 21–28 @ Nebraska 29% −29
82 SMU L 12–13 @ Wake Forest 30% −30
83 Ball State L 7–21 @ Northern Illinois 32% −32
84 Missouri L 10–17 @ Vanderbilt 33% −33
85 UConn L 34–37 @ Rice 34% −34
86 Louisiana L 23–35 @ Troy 38% −38
87 Tulsa L 37–38 vs Temple 40% −40
88 Illinois L 25–42 @ Washington 42% −42
89 App State L 21–24 @ Old Dominion 44% −44
90 Arizona State L 16–24 vs Houston 46% −46
91 Purdue L 24–27 vs Rutgers 52% −52
92 Louisiana Tech L 27–28 vs Western Kentucky 53% −53
93 Nevada L 3–24 vs Boise State 55% −55
94 New Mexico State L 17–24 vs Missouri State 56% −56
95 Middle Tennessee L 28–31 @ Delaware 58% −58
96 West Virginia L 17–23 vs TCU 60% −60
97 Mississippi State L 38–45 vs Texas 61% −61
98 Georgia State L 31–38 vs South Alabama 61% −61
99 Oklahoma L 26–34 vs Ole Miss 62% −62
100 South Carolina L 22–29 vs Alabama 62% −62
101 Bowling Green L 21–24 @ Kent State 62% −62
102 Arkansas L 24–33 vs Auburn 70% −70
103 Buffalo L 16–24 vs Akron 70% −70
104 South Florida L 31–34 @ Memphis 72% −72
105 Iowa State L 27–41 vs BYU 74% −74
106 North Carolina L 16–17 vs Virginia 85% −85