Week 9 2025 · October 24, 2025
North Texas at Charlotte, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
North Texas beat Charlotte 54–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff North Texas was a 95% favorite.
Final
 North Texas Mean Green | 54 |
|---|---|
 Charlotte 49ers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 North Texas about even · −2 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Texas wins 10, Charlotte wins 0.
- 1 UNT 63 CLT 6
- 2 UNT 58 CLT 10
- 3 UNT 49 CLT 6
- 4 UNT 49 CLT 10
- 5 UNT 52 CLT 17
- 6 UNT 42 CLT 10
- 7 UNT 48 CLT 21
- 8 UNT 65 CLT 44
- 9 UNT 44 CLT 28
- 10 UNT 49 CLT 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Texas wins 98% of them, Charlotte 2%. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Texas by 17+ | 86.5% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 7.3% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 4.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Boyd, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- K. Nguma, 29 yds made · 86% expected
- L. Boyd, 20 yds made · 94% expected
- K. Nguma, 41 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: North Texas 5 for 45 yards, Charlotte 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:46 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CLT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:01 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:40 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:02 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +1% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:48 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +1% CLT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:02 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% UNT +2.5 pts |
| Q4 12:21 | Personal Foul on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% UNT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:57 | Personal Foul on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% UNT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:57 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | 0% UNT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Texas, 15 yards | 0% CLT +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Charlotte’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:34 | North Texas was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% CLT | UNT: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 8:34 | North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% CLT | UNT: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 4:14 | North Texas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% UNT | UNT: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 12:23 | North Texas fumbled and Charlotte recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% CLT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 8:23 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% UNT | CLT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:06 | North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% CLT | UNT: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 2:02 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedFalse Start on Charlotte, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% UNT | CLT: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 15:00 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Texas 100% · Charlotte 0%
- Final margin
- North Texas by 34
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for North Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Texas by 28.9
- Replay with same day's form
- North Texas 98% · Charlotte 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
North Texas · 
Charlotte
More from Week 9 2025
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Temple at Tulsa TEM 38–37 · replay 60% for the winner
- UConn at Rice RICE 37–34 · replay 66% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Navy NAVY 42–32 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner