Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Temple at Tulsa, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Temple beat Tulsa 38–37, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Temple wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Temple.
Before kickoff Temple was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:03 left): Tulsa converted 4th & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to Tulsa.
Final (OT)
 Temple Owls | 38 |
|---|---|
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Temple lucky · −40 Tulsa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Temple wins 6, Tulsa wins 4.
- 1 TEM 41 TLSA 10
- 2 TEM 35 TLSA 14
- 3 TEM 35 TLSA 21
- 4 TEM 28 TLSA 17
- 5 TEM 38 TLSA 31
- 6 TEM 27 TLSA 24
- 7 TEM 17 TLSA 20
- 8 TEM 20 TLSA 27
- 9 TEM 28 TLSA 42
- 10 TEM 14 TLSA 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Temple wins 60% of them, Tulsa 40%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Temple by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Temple by 17+ | 22.8% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 19.7% |
| Level after regulation | 5.7% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Tulsa by 17+ | 9.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Morgan, 36 yds made · 78% expected
- C. Hardin, 52 yds made · 50% expected
Penalties: Temple 7 for 87 yards, Tulsa 5 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:15 | Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% TEM +3.3 pts |
| Q1 10:37 | Roughing the Passer on Temple, 15 yards | +3% TLSA +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:25 | Pass Interference on Tulsa, 12 yards, wiping out the play | +8% TEM +3.7 pts |
| Q2 13:24 | Horse Collar Tackle on Tulsa, 15 yards | +6% TEM +3.0 pts |
| Q2 9:18 | Offside on Tulsa, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEM +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:35 | Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards | +4% TLSA +2.4 pts |
| Q2 3:07 | Offside on Tulsa, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM 0.0 pts |
| Q3 10:26 | Pass Interference on Temple, 13 yards | +2% TLSA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:02 | Personal Foul on Temple, 15 yards | +4% TLSA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:33 | Pass Interference on Temple, 13 yards | +6% TLSA +2.1 pts |
| Q4 5:28 | Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards | +3% TLSA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Roughing the Passer on Temple, 1 yard | +3% TLSA +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Tulsa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:15 | Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% TEM | TEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:03 | Temple converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% TEM | TEM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:25 | Pass Interference on Tulsa, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% TEM | TEM: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 1:55 | Temple was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +7% TLSA | TEM: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 10:38 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 9:03 | Tulsa converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +10% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:28 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% TLSA | TLSA: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 2:40 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% TLSA | TLSA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Temple 77% · Tulsa 23%
- Final margin
- Temple by 1
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Tulsa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Temple by 4.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Temple 60% · Tulsa 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Temple · 
Tulsa
More from Week 9 2025
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- UConn at Rice RICE 37–34 · replay 66% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Navy NAVY 42–32 · replay 98% for the winner
- North Texas at Charlotte UNT 54–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner