Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Florida Atlantic at Navy, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Navy beat Florida Atlantic 42–32, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Navy wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Navy was an 83% favorite.
Final
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 32 |
|---|---|
 Navy Midshipmen | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Navy about even · −2 Florida Atlantic
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida Atlantic wins 0, Navy wins 10.
- 1 FAU 17 NAVY 23
- 2 FAU 31 NAVY 42
- 3 FAU 24 NAVY 41
- 4 FAU 20 NAVY 40
- 5 FAU 21 NAVY 45
- 6 FAU 10 NAVY 38
- 7 FAU 14 NAVY 45
- 8 FAU 7 NAVY 42
- 9 FAU 14 NAVY 55
- 10 FAU 10 NAVY 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida Atlantic wins 2% of them, Navy 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Navy by 17+ | 83.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Smith, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- G. Smith, 38 yds made · 77% expected
- G. Smith, 49 yds missed · 57% expected
Penalties: Florida Atlantic 5 for 31 yards, Navy 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:23 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:49 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:17 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:29 | Personal Foul on Navy, 15 yards | +1% FAU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:31 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +1% NAVY +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | Face Mask on Florida Atlantic, 6 yards | +1% NAVY +1.1 pts |
| Q3 14:15 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:40 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | +1% FAU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:05 | Offside on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Navy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:28 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:16 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +3% NAVY | FAU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 12:36 | Florida Atlantic converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +3% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 6:45 | Navy fumbled and Florida Atlantic recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% FAU | NAVY: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 13:54 | Navy converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +3% NAVY | NAVY: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 10:25 | Navy was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +4% FAU | NAVY: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 6:31 | G. Smith missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +3% NAVY | FAU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 0:10 | Navy was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +4% FAU | NAVY: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida Atlantic 1% · Navy 99%
- Final margin
- Navy by 10
- Luck in points
- 7.1 for Florida Atlantic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Navy by 17.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida Atlantic 2% · Navy 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Florida Atlantic · 
Navy
More from Week 9 2025
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Temple at Tulsa TEM 38–37 · replay 60% for the winner
- UConn at Rice RICE 37–34 · replay 66% for the winner
- North Texas at Charlotte UNT 54–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner