Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
UConn at Rice, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Rice beat UConn 37–34, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
An off day for UConn: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Rice it would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%. The numbers
Before kickoff UConn was a 75% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 4:51 left): C. Freeman missed a 46-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to Rice.
Final (OT)
 UConn Huskies | 34 |
|---|---|
 Rice Owls | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Rice lucky · −34 UConn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UConn wins 3, Rice wins 7.
- 1 CONN 31 RICE 10
- 2 CONN 20 RICE 10
- 3 CONN 17 RICE 14
- 4 CONN 17 RICE 20
- 5 CONN 10 RICE 14
- 6 CONN 14 RICE 22
- 7 CONN 13 RICE 24
- 8 CONN 3 RICE 20
- 9 CONN 24 RICE 45
- 10 CONN 10 RICE 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for UConn
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Rice it would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for UConn: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UConn offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.12 | worse by 0.03 |
| UConn defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.01 | worse by 0.07 |
| Rice offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | −0.01 | better by 0.08 |
| Rice defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.07 | worse by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UConn wins 34% of them, Rice 66%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rice by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UConn by 17+ | 8.3% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 9.7% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 14.5% |
| Level after regulation | 3.7% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Rice by 17+ | 25.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Gota, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- C. Freeman, 45 yds made · 65% expected
- C. Freeman, 46 yds missed · 63% expected
- C. Freeman, 41 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: UConn 2 for 30 yards, Rice 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 1:59 | Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards | 0% RICE +1.5 pts |
| Q3 10:44 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CONN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:32 | Personal Foul on UConn, 15 yards | +3% RICE +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Rice’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:43 | Rice converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% RICE | RICE: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 2:57 | UConn converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:48 | UConn converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:32 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedPersonal Foul on UConn, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% RICE | CONN: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:47 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% RICE | CONN: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 5:18 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% RICE | CONN: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:51 | The game turned hereC. Freeman missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before | +16% RICE | CONN: Punt |
| 8 | 2OT | C. Freeman made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +10% RICE | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UConn 38% · Rice 62%
- Final margin
- Rice by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Rice
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rice by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- UConn 34% · Rice 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
UConn · 
Rice
More from Week 9 2025
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Temple at Tulsa TEM 38–37 · replay 60% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Navy NAVY 42–32 · replay 98% for the winner
- North Texas at Charlotte UNT 54–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner