luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Akron at Buffalo, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Akron beat Buffalo 24–16, but the replays lean toward Buffalo: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Akron.

Before kickoff Buffalo was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:48 left): Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to Akron.

Final

Akron Zips 24
Buffalo Bulls 16

October 25, 2025 · UB Stadium · Closing line: Buffalo −10

Luck index +70 Akron very lucky · −70 Buffalo

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Akron wins 3, Buffalo wins 7.

  1. 1 AKR 40 BUF 20
  2. 2 AKR 20 BUF 10
  3. 3 AKR 27 BUF 23
  4. 4 AKR 25 BUF 27
  5. 5 AKR 35 BUF 41
  6. 6 AKR 21 BUF 30
  7. 7 AKR 17 BUF 30
  8. 8 AKR 27 BUF 45
  9. 9 AKR 25 BUF 49
  10. 10 AKR 13 BUF 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Akron wins 30% of them, Buffalo 70%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Akron by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Akron by 17+8.0%
Akron by 9–169.5%
Akron by 1–812.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Buffalo by 1–818.8%
Buffalo by 9–1616.6%
Buffalo by 17+33.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to Akron: the final margin was Akron by 8, without the luck Akron by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Schramm, 44 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Howes, 21 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Howes, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Akron 6 for 42 yards, Buffalo 6 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:58 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% AKR +0.9 pts
Q1 11:18 Face Mask on Buffalo, 15 yards +3% AKR +1.6 pts
Q1 8:10 False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q1 3:38 Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards +1% AKR +0.6 pts
Q1 0:42 Holding on Akron, 10 yards +2% BUF +1.1 pts
Q2 10:29 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards +2% AKR +1.2 pts
Q2 4:47 Intentional Grounding on Akron, 7 yards +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 4:36 Personal Foul on Buffalo, 15 yards +2% AKR +0.9 pts
Q2 0:21 Pass Interference on Akron, 14 yards +5% BUF +2.7 pts
Q2 0:16 Pass Interference on Akron, 1 yard +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 1:19 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 10 yards +5% AKR +1.3 pts
Q4 2:44 Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.4 pts

When it happened

Buffalo’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Buffalo was ahead in it, below while Akron was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 Buffalo converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +5% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q2 4:57 Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% AKR BUF: Turnover
3 Q2 0:21 Akron fumbled and Buffalo recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Pass Interference on Akron, 14 yardsJudgment calls +9% BUF AKR: End of half
4 Q3 12:19 Akron converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% AKR AKR: Touchdown
5 Q3 10:57 Akron converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% AKR AKR: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:48 Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +14% AKR BUF: Turnover
7 Q3 1:19 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% AKR AKR: Turnover
8 Q3 0:52 Akron fumbled and Buffalo recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% BUF AKR: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Akron 87% · Buffalo 13%

Final margin
Akron by 8
Luck in points
1.4 for Akron
Luck-adjusted margin
Akron by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Akron 30% · Buffalo 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Akron · Buffalo

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