Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Toledo at Washington State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Washington State beat Toledo 28–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington State wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Toledo: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Washington State it would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff Toledo was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Toledo Rockets | 7 |
|---|---|
 Washington State Cougars | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Washington State about even · −8 Toledo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Toledo wins 1, Washington State wins 9.
- 1 TOL 21 WSU 13
- 2 TOL 7 WSU 10
- 3 TOL 13 WSU 20
- 4 TOL 3 WSU 14
- 5 TOL 24 WSU 38
- 6 TOL 7 WSU 24
- 7 TOL 10 WSU 31
- 8 TOL 10 WSU 35
- 9 TOL 3 WSU 33
- 10 TOL 0 WSU 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Toledo
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Washington State it would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for Toledo: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.03 | worse by 0.20 |
| Toledo defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | −0.02 | worse by 0.21 |
| Washington State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.12 | better by 0.07 |
| Washington State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.07 | better by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Toledo wins 8% of them, Washington State 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington State by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Toledo by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Washington State by 1–8 | 12.2% |
| Washington State by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| Washington State by 17+ | 58.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Toledo 8 for 65 yards, Washington State 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:42 | Kick Catch Interference on Washington State, 15 yards | +2% TOL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:51 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:57 | Illegal Snap on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:02 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% TOL +2.0 pts |
| Q1 0:01 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WSU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 4:07 | Intentional Grounding on Washington State, 10 yards | +1% TOL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:26 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +2% WSU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:07 | Pass Interference on Washington State, 15 yards | +2% TOL +2.0 pts |
| Q4 4:41 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:18 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards | 0% WSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Face Mask on Toledo, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% WSU +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Washington State’s chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:57 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedIllegal Snap on Toledo, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% WSU | TOL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:17 | Washington State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% WSU | WSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:02 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% TOL | TOL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:28 | Washington State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% WSU | WSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:40 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% WSU | TOL: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 4:00 | Washington State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +6% WSU | WSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 9:21 | Toledo fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TOL | TOL: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 3:07 | Toledo was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +5% WSU | TOL: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Toledo 2% · Washington State 98%
- Final margin
- Washington State by 21
- Luck in points
- 9.0 for Washington State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington State by 12.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Toledo 8% · Washington State 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Toledo · 
Washington State
More from Week 9 2025
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ball State at Northern Illinois NIU 21–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Ohio at Eastern Michigan OHIO 28–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Miami (OH) M-OH 26–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Central Michigan CMU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner