American · 2026 season, in progress

Florida Atlantic Owls: luck and expected wins

Florida Atlantic is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 3rd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.

2026, game by game

How often Florida Atlantic wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Florida	L 21–66	1%	−1
Week 2	vs Navy	W 38–30	85%	+15
Week 3	vs Florida International	W 16–10	31%	+69
Week 4	@ UL Monroe	W 45–17	70%	+30

Wk 1 −1 @ FLA

Wk 2 +15 vs NAVY

Wk 3 +69 vs FIU

Wk 4 +30 @ ULM

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Florida Atlantic win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Texas Southern	Florida Atlantic by 37.1	99%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Army	Army by 14.1	19%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Rice	Florida Atlantic by 8.9	71%
Week 9 · Oct 29	at North Texas	North Texas by 18.2	14%
Week 10 · Nov 5	vs UTSA	UTSA by 8.0	32%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Tulsa	Tulsa by 4.5	40%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs South Florida	South Florida by 10.1	28%
Week 13 · Nov 27	at East Carolina	East Carolina by 9.0	30%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Florida Atlantic’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.10	−1.8
Kicks	+0.05	+3.6
Fumble bounces	+0.03	+3.8

Luckiest wins

Wins Florida Atlantic takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	vs Florida International	W 16–10	31%	+69
2025 Week 6	@ Rice	W 27–21	38%	+62
2026 Week 4	@ UL Monroe	W 45–17	70%	+30
2025 Week 11	vs Tulsa	W 40–21	80%	+20
2026 Week 2	vs Navy	W 38–30	85%	+15

Unluckiest losses

Losses Florida Atlantic would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 13	vs UConn	L 45–48	75%	−75
2025 Week 3	@ Florida International	L 28–38	69%	−69
2025 Week 1	@ Maryland	L 7–39	32%	−32
2025 Week 12	@ Tulane	L 24–35	24%	−24
2025 Week 5	vs Memphis	L 26–55	6%	−6

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.2	−1.2	1–1	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Maryland	L 7–39	32%	−32
Week 2	vs Florida A&M	W 56–14	98%	+2
Week 3	@ Florida International	L 28–38	69%	−69
Week 5	vs Memphis	L 26–55	6%	−6
Week 6	@ Rice	W 27–21	38%	+62
Week 7	vs UAB	W 53–33	100%	0
Week 8	@ South Florida	L 13–48	2%	−2
Week 9	@ Navy	L 32–42	2%	−2
Week 11	vs Tulsa	W 40–21	80%	+20
Week 12	@ Tulane	L 24–35	24%	−24
Week 13	vs UConn	L 45–48	75%	−75
Week 14	vs East Carolina	L 3–42	1%	−1