College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
South Florida vs Florida Atlantic prediction and pick
Our South Florida Bulls at Florida Atlantic Owls pick: South Florida by 10.1, 73% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: South Florida by 10.1South Florida win 73%Florida Atlantic win 27%5649423528211470714212835424956← South Florida win byFlorida Atlantic win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
South Florida win
72.5%
Florida Atlantic win
27.5%
Middle 50%: South Florida by 21 to Florida Atlantic by 3
50%
Middle 90%: South Florida by 38 to Florida Atlantic by 18
90%
Middle 95%: South Florida by 44 to Florida Atlantic by 24
95%
Exactly South Florida by 3
6.0%
Exactly South Florida by 7
5.2%
Exactly Florida Atlantic by 3
4.9%
Exactly South Florida by 14
4.0%
Exactly South Florida by 17
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between South Florida by 21 and Florida Atlantic by 3.
P90
9 in 10 between South Florida by 38 and Florida Atlantic by 18.
P95
19 in 20 between South Florida by 44 and Florida Atlantic by 24.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
South Florida vs Florida Atlantic: questions and answers
Who will win South Florida vs Florida Atlantic?
Our forecast picks South Florida, with 73% to win; Florida Atlantic win 27% of the time.
What’s the spread for South Florida vs Florida Atlantic?
Our spread: South Florida −10.1. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is South Florida vs Florida Atlantic?
Saturday, November 21, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at FAU Stadium.
South Florida at 
Florida Atlantic
