South Florida Bulls: luck and expected wins

2026, game by game

How often South Florida wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	South Florida win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Temple	South Florida by 12.9	79%
Week 6 · Oct 8	at UTSA	UTSA by 1.0	47%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Kent State	South Florida by 27.9	96%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs UAB	South Florida by 19.7	88%
Week 10 · Nov 6	at East Carolina	South Florida by 4.3	60%
Week 11 · Nov 12	vs Memphis	South Florida by 7.1	66%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Florida Atlantic	South Florida by 10.1	73%
Week 13 · Nov 27	vs Tulane	South Florida by 9.7	72%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in South Florida’s favor.

Luckiest wins

Wins South Florida takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Unluckiest losses

Losses South Florida would win most often in a replay.

Earlier seasons