luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Delaware State at South Florida, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

South Florida beat Delaware State 59–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff South Florida was a 99% favorite.

Final

Delaware State Hornets 17
South Florida Bulls 59

September 19, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: South Florida −37.5

Luck index +5 South Florida about even · −5 Delaware State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Delaware State wins 1, South Florida wins 9.

  1. 1 DSU 31 USF 24
  2. 2 DSU 27 USF 30
  3. 3 DSU 36 USF 47
  4. 4 DSU 48 USF 63
  5. 5 DSU 17 USF 38
  6. 6 DSU 10 USF 35
  7. 7 DSU 24 USF 55
  8. 8 DSU 31 USF 66
  9. 9 DSU 10 USF 51
  10. 10 DSU 24 USF 77

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Delaware State wins 5% of them, South Florida 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 42.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Delaware State by 17+0.6%
Delaware State by 9–161.4%
Delaware State by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation1.1%
South Florida by 1–88.2%
South Florida by 9–1610.9%
South Florida by 17+74.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to South Florida: the final margin was South Florida by 42, without the luck South Florida by 35.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • P. Fisher-Butler, 47 yds missed · 57% expected
  • P. Fisher-Butler, 23 yds made · 89% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 20 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Delaware State 6 for 52 yards, South Florida 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Personal Foul on Delaware State, 11 yards 0% USF +1.4 pts
Q1 8:39 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DSU +0.6 pts
Q1 8:39 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DSU +0.7 pts
Q2 8:17 Unnecessary Roughness on Delaware State, 15 yards 0% USF +1.6 pts
Q2 8:16 Personal Foul on South Florida, 15 yards 0% DSU +1.6 pts
Q2 8:16 Illegal Block on Delaware State, 11 yards 0% USF +0.7 pts
Q2 3:51 Offside on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.4 pts
Q2 2:56 False Start on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Delay of Game on Delaware State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.9 pts
Q4 10:46 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards 0% DSU +1.0 pts

When it happened

South Florida’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Florida was ahead in it, below while Delaware State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Personal Foul on Delaware State, 11 yardsJudgment calls +0% USF USF: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:51 Delaware State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +0% DSU DSU: Turnover
3 Q2 11:35 South Florida converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedDelaware State fumbled and South Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% USF USF: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:17 Unnecessary Roughness on Delaware State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% USF USF: Turnover
5 Q2 8:16 Delaware State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedPersonal Foul on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Block on Delaware State, 11 yardsJudgment calls +0% USF DSU: Field goal
6 Q2 4:00 P. Fisher-Butler made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +0% USF DSU: Touchdown
7 Q3 15:00 Delaware State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedDelaware State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on Delaware State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% DSU DSU: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 12:03 Delaware State was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +0% USF DSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Delaware State 0% · South Florida 100%

Final margin
South Florida by 42
Luck in points
6.6 for South Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
South Florida by 35.4
Replay with same day's form
Delaware State 5% · South Florida 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Delaware State · South Florida

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