Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
East Texas A&M at Tulsa, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Tulsa beat East Texas A&M 42–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tulsa wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Tulsa was a 100% favorite.
Final
 East Texas A&M Lions | 0 |
|---|---|
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Tulsa about even · −1 East Texas A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Texas A&M wins 0, Tulsa wins 10.
- 1 ETAM 10 TLSA 16
- 2 ETAM 7 TLSA 20
- 3 ETAM 14 TLSA 31
- 4 ETAM 6 TLSA 27
- 5 ETAM 10 TLSA 34
- 6 ETAM 14 TLSA 41
- 7 ETAM 10 TLSA 40
- 8 ETAM 0 TLSA 34
- 9 ETAM 3 TLSA 41
- 10 ETAM 7 TLSA 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Texas A&M wins 1% of them, Tulsa 99%. The line is what actually happened: Tulsa by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Texas A&M by 17+ | 0.0% |
| East Texas A&M by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| East Texas A&M by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 10.1% |
| Tulsa by 17+ | 83.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: East Texas A&M 7 for 62 yards, Tulsa 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:17 | False Start on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 11:17 | False Start on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ETAM +0.2 pts |
| Q1 6:30 | Delay of Game on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:46 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards | 0% ETAM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | Personal Foul on Tulsa, 15 yards | 0% ETAM +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:26 | Intentional Grounding on East Texas A&M, 12 yards | 0% TLSA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:31 | Pass Interference on East Texas A&M, 15 yards | 0% TLSA +1.8 pts |
| Q4 10:35 | Pass Interference on East Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TLSA +2.3 pts |
| Q4 10:05 | Holding on East Texas A&M, 10 yards | 0% TLSA +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Tulsa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:17 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedFalse Start on East Texas A&M, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on East Texas A&M, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TLSA | TLSA: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 9:15 | Tulsa was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% ETAM | TLSA: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 8:32 | Tulsa fumbled and East Texas A&M recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% ETAM | TLSA: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:07 | Tulsa was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% ETAM | TLSA: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:28 | East Texas A&M converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% ETAM | ETAM: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 13:47 | East Texas A&M was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +0% TLSA | ETAM: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 6:38 | East Texas A&M was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% TLSA | ETAM: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 10:35 | Pass Interference on East Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% TLSA | TLSA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Texas A&M 0% · Tulsa 100%
- Final margin
- Tulsa by 42
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for Tulsa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulsa by 32.6
- Replay with same day's form
- East Texas A&M 1% · Tulsa 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
East Texas A&M · 
Tulsa
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