luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

UT Martin at Memphis, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Memphis beat UT Martin 45–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Memphis wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Memphis was a 99% favorite.

Final

UT Martin Skyhawks 21
Memphis Tigers 45

September 19, 2026 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Closing line: Memphis −33.5

Luck index 0 Memphis about even · 0 UT Martin

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UT Martin wins 0, Memphis wins 10.

  1. 1 UTM 21 MEM 34
  2. 2 UTM 24 MEM 45
  3. 3 UTM 10 MEM 35
  4. 4 UTM 0 MEM 30
  5. 5 UTM 16 MEM 49
  6. 6 UTM 3 MEM 38
  7. 7 UTM 17 MEM 56
  8. 8 UTM 0 MEM 44
  9. 9 UTM 0 MEM 48
  10. 10 UTM 0 MEM 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UT Martin wins 0% of them, Memphis 100%. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UT Martin by 17+0.0%
UT Martin by 9–160.1%
UT Martin by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Memphis by 1–81.5%
Memphis by 9–162.6%
Memphis by 17+95.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to Memphis: the final margin was Memphis by 24, without the luck Memphis by 18.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: UT Martin 8 for 50 yards, Memphis 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:43 Face Mask on UT Martin, 15 yards 0% MEM +0.9 pts
Q1 2:37 False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +1.0 pts
Q1 1:18 Illegal Formation on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +0.3 pts
Q2 10:07 False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +0.9 pts
Q2 4:44 False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +0.8 pts
Q2 3:44 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTM +0.7 pts
Q3 12:25 Illegal Substitution on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +1.0 pts
Q3 8:15 Offside on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTM +2.4 pts
Q3 4:09 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTM +0.1 pts
Q4 14:12 Illegal Shift on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +0.1 pts
Q4 12:44 False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +1.0 pts

When it happened

Memphis’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Memphis was ahead in it, below while UT Martin was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 UT Martin converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedUT Martin was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +0% UTM UTM: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 7:32 UT Martin was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedP. Laforge made a 30-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +0% MEM UTM: Punt
3 Q2 5:57 UT Martin converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% UTM UTM: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:11 UT Martin converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +0% UTM UTM: End of half
5 Q2 3:44 False Start on Memphis, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% UTM UTM: End of half
6 Q2 2:42 Memphis converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% MEM MEM: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:17 Memphis converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% MEM MEM: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:35 Memphis fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% MEM MEM: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UT Martin 0% · Memphis 100%

Final margin
Memphis by 24
Luck in points
5.1 for Memphis
Luck-adjusted margin
Memphis by 18.9
Replay with same day's form
UT Martin 0% · Memphis 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · UT Martin · Memphis

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