Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
North Texas at Texas State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Texas State beat North Texas 49–35, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 9 of 10.
An off day for North Texas: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Texas State it would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff Texas State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:20 left): North Texas was stopped on 4th & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to Texas State.
Final
 North Texas Mean Green | 35 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Texas State about even · −8 North Texas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Texas wins 1, Texas State wins 9.
- 1 UNT 49 TXST 42
- 2 UNT 38 TXST 42
- 3 UNT 41 TXST 49
- 4 UNT 37 TXST 49
- 5 UNT 45 TXST 59
- 6 UNT 38 TXST 56
- 7 UNT 20 TXST 44
- 8 UNT 24 TXST 52
- 9 UNT 19 TXST 52
- 10 UNT 35 TXST 77
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for North Texas
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Texas State it would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for North Texas: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.16 | better by 0.15 |
| North Texas defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.41 | +0.11 | worse by 0.30 |
| Texas State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.41 | +0.15 | better by 0.26 |
| Texas State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.07 | worse by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Texas wins 8% of them, Texas State 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Texas by 17+ | 0.8% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 5.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 17.2% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 62.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: North Texas 8 for 90 yards, Texas State 7 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:24 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:19 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +3% TXST +1.8 pts |
| Q1 0:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas State, 15 yards | 0% UNT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas State, 15 yards | +2% UNT +2.0 pts |
| Q2 5:25 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Texas, 15 yards | 0% TXST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:47 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Texas, 15 yards | +1% TXST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Personal Foul on Texas State, 15 yards | +3% UNT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:12 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% TXST +0.1 pts |
| Q3 12:40 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:45 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +2% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:10 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +1% TXST +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas State, 15 yards | +5% UNT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:24 | Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards | +4% TXST +2.1 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | 0% TXST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:58 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:47 | North Texas converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on North Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% UNT | UNT: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 12:42 | North Texas fumbled and Texas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% TXST | UNT: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 11:08 | North Texas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% UNT | UNT: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 10:06 | North Texas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% UNT | UNT: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 7:30 | North Texas was stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% TXST | UNT: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 2:47 | North Texas converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% UNT | UNT: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 14:50 | North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% TXST | UNT: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 14:20 | North Texas was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +9% TXST | UNT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Texas 0% · Texas State 100%
- Final margin
- Texas State by 14
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for North Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 15.4
- Replay with same day's form
- North Texas 8% · Texas State 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
North Texas · 
Texas State
More from Week 3 2026
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- James Madison at San Diego State JMU 26–13 · replay 40% for the winner
- Fresno State at San José State FRES 26–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Tulane at Kansas State KSU 31–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Delaware State at South Florida USF 59–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- South Dakota at Boise State BOIS 38–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at Tulsa TLSA 42–0 · replay 99% for the winner