luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

South Dakota at Boise State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Boise State beat South Dakota 38–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boise State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Boise State was a 97% favorite.

Final

South Dakota Coyotes 24
Boise State Broncos 38

September 19, 2026 · Albertsons Stadium · Closing line: Boise State −28.5

Luck index +3 Boise State about even · −3 South Dakota

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Dakota wins 0, Boise State wins 10.

  1. 1 SDAK 17 BOIS 21
  2. 2 SDAK 10 BOIS 21
  3. 3 SDAK 17 BOIS 33
  4. 4 SDAK 17 BOIS 37
  5. 5 SDAK 17 BOIS 41
  6. 6 SDAK 14 BOIS 41
  7. 7 SDAK 7 BOIS 38
  8. 8 SDAK 10 BOIS 45
  9. 9 SDAK 21 BOIS 63
  10. 10 SDAK 3 BOIS 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Dakota wins 3% of them, Boise State 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
South Dakota by 17+0.2%
South Dakota by 9–160.4%
South Dakota by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Boise State by 1–86.5%
Boise State by 9–1610.4%
Boise State by 17+80.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to South Dakota: the final margin was Boise State by 14, without the luck Boise State by 16.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Moore, 38 yds made · 76% expected
  • B. Ing, 43 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: South Dakota 5 for 50 yards, Boise State 4 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 False Start on South Dakota, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BOIS +0.9 pts
Q1 1:53 Personal Foul on South Dakota, 15 yards +1% BOIS +1.6 pts
Q1 0:04 Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards 0% SDAK +1.1 pts
Q3 5:07 Holding on Boise State, 9 yards 0% SDAK +0.6 pts
Q3 4:00 Personal Foul on South Dakota, 15 yards 0% BOIS +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDAK +0.8 pts
Q4 11:24 False Start on South Dakota, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BOIS +1.0 pts
Q4 4:37 Holding on South Dakota, 10 yards +4% BOIS +1.7 pts
Q4 2:10 Holding on Boise State, 10 yards +7% SDAK +1.9 pts

When it happened

Boise State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Boise State was ahead in it, below while South Dakota was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:17 Boise State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +4% SDAK BOIS: Touchdown
2 Q4 12:50 Boise State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% SDAK BOIS: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:24 False Start on South Dakota, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% BOIS BOIS: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:33 B. Ing made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him +3% SDAK SDAK: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 9:46 Boise State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +5% BOIS BOIS: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:37 Holding on South Dakota, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% BOIS BOIS: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:10 Holding on Boise State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% SDAK SDAK: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:44 South Dakota was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% BOIS SDAK: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Dakota 0% · Boise State 100%

Final margin
Boise State by 14
Luck in points
2.5 for South Dakota
Luck-adjusted margin
Boise State by 16.5
Replay with same day's form
South Dakota 3% · Boise State 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · South Dakota · Boise State

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