luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Montana at Oregon State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Oregon State beat Montana 52–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Oregon State was an 87% favorite.

Final

Montana Grizzlies 17
Oregon State Beavers 52

September 19, 2026 · Reser Stadium · Closing line: Oregon State −17.5

Luck index +1 Oregon State about even · −1 Montana

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Montana wins 0, Oregon State wins 10.

  1. 1 MONT 31 ORST 38
  2. 2 MONT 20 ORST 34
  3. 3 MONT 34 ORST 52
  4. 4 MONT 26 ORST 49
  5. 5 MONT 14 ORST 42
  6. 6 MONT 10 ORST 40
  7. 7 MONT 23 ORST 56
  8. 8 MONT 7 ORST 45
  9. 9 MONT 10 ORST 52
  10. 10 MONT 10 ORST 62

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Montana wins 1% of them, Oregon State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon State by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Montana by 17+0.1%
Montana by 9–160.3%
Montana by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.3%
Oregon State by 1–84.0%
Oregon State by 9–167.3%
Oregon State by 17+87.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to Oregon State: the final margin was Oregon State by 35, without the luck Oregon State by 32.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Silver, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Ojeda, 22 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Montana 7 for 80 yards, Oregon State 7 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 False Start on Montana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORST +1.3 pts
Q1 11:15 Face Mask on Oregon State, 15 yards +1% MONT +0.9 pts
Q2 13:27 Offside on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MONT +1.5 pts
Q2 13:00 Holding on Montana, 10 yards +1% ORST +1.9 pts
Q2 11:51 Illegal Block on Oregon State, 10 yards 0% MONT +0.6 pts
Q2 11:08 Targeting on Montana, 15 yards +1% ORST +1.6 pts
Q2 10:06 Pass Interference on Montana, 15 yards 0% ORST +0.9 pts
Q2 7:29 Holding on Montana, 10 yards 0% ORST +2.6 pts
Q2 1:43 Holding on Oregon State, 8 yards, wiping out the play 0% MONT +1.3 pts
Q3 7:41 False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MONT +0.6 pts
Q3 7:08 Holding on Montana, 10 yards 0% ORST +2.0 pts
Q4 8:45 Pass Interference on Montana, 15 yards 0% ORST +0.9 pts
Q4 7:57 Ineligible Downfield on Oregon State, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% MONT +4.5 pts
Q4 6:59 Delay of Game on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MONT +0.9 pts

When it happened

Oregon State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oregon State was ahead in it, below while Montana was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 False Start on Montana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% ORST ORST: Touchdown
2 Q1 13:55 Montana was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +1% ORST MONT: Punt
3 Q1 12:52 Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +1% MONT ORST: Touchdown
4 Q1 12:06 Oregon State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +2% ORST ORST: Touchdown
5 Q1 8:03 Montana was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +1% ORST MONT: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 7:57 Montana was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +2% ORST MONT: Punt
7 Q2 13:27 Offside on Oregon State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% MONT MONT: Field goal
8 Q2 13:00 Holding on Montana, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% ORST ORST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Montana 0% · Oregon State 100%

Final margin
Oregon State by 35
Luck in points
2.6 for Oregon State
Luck-adjusted margin
Oregon State by 32.4
Replay with same day's form
Montana 1% · Oregon State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Montana · Oregon State

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