luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Eastern Washington at Washington, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Washington beat Eastern Washington 48–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Washington was a 100% favorite.

Final

Eastern Washington Eagles 16
Washington Huskies 48

September 19, 2026 · Husky Stadium · Closing line: Washington −42.5

Luck index 0 Washington about even · 0 Eastern Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eastern Washington wins 0, Washington wins 10.

  1. 1 EWU 34 WASH 49
  2. 2 EWU 28 WASH 51
  3. 3 EWU 34 WASH 62
  4. 4 EWU 10 WASH 42
  5. 5 EWU 21 WASH 56
  6. 6 EWU 26 WASH 65
  7. 7 EWU 10 WASH 52
  8. 8 EWU 14 WASH 62
  9. 9 EWU 10 WASH 62
  10. 10 EWU 14 WASH 76

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eastern Washington wins 0% of them, Washington 100%. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eastern Washington by 17+0.0%
Eastern Washington by 9–160.1%
Eastern Washington by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Washington by 1–81.2%
Washington by 9–163.0%
Washington by 17+95.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 32, without the luck Washington by 23.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. McKee, 20 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Robles, 25 yds made · 90% expected
  • S. McKee, 37 yds made · 76% expected
  • S. McKee, 43 yds made · 65% expected
  • T. Robles, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eastern Washington 3 for 20 yards, Washington 8 for 101 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:57 False Start on Eastern Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +1.4 pts
Q1 0:11 Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards 0% EWU +1.1 pts
Q2 15:00 Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards 0% EWU +1.9 pts
Q2 1:59 Ineligible Downfield on Eastern Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% WASH +1.3 pts
Q3 8:10 Targeting on Washington, 15 yards 0% EWU +1.6 pts
Q3 8:10 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards 0% EWU +2.3 pts
Q3 7:48 Pass Interference on Washington, 13 yards 0% EWU +2.0 pts
Q3 6:30 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% EWU +0.9 pts
Q4 14:44 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards 0% EWU +3.8 pts
Q4 14:07 Holding on Eastern Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% WASH +5.8 pts
Q4 12:59 Holding on Washington, 8 yards 0% EWU +0.5 pts

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while Eastern Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:30 Eastern Washington was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% WASH EWU: Field goal
2 Q1 4:13 Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% WASH WASH: Touchdown
3 Q2 15:00 Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% EWU EWU: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:45 Eastern Washington was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +0% WASH EWU: Punt
5 Q2 1:59 Ineligible Downfield on Eastern Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% WASH WASH: Field goal
6 Q3 5:37 Eastern Washington was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +0% WASH EWU: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 5:31 Eastern Washington was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +0% WASH EWU: Field goal
8 Q4 14:07 Holding on Eastern Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% WASH WASH: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eastern Washington 0% · Washington 100%

Final margin
Washington by 32
Luck in points
8.4 for Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 23.6
Replay with same day's form
Eastern Washington 0% · Washington 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Eastern Washington · Washington

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