luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 18, 2026

Portland State at Oregon, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Oregon beat Portland State 84–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Oregon was a 100% favorite.

Final

Portland State Vikings 0
Oregon Ducks 84

September 18, 2026 · Autzen Stadium · Closing line: Oregon −58.5

Luck index 0 Oregon about even · 0 Portland State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Portland State wins 0, Oregon wins 10.

  1. 1 PRST 10 ORE 42
  2. 2 PRST 16 ORE 59
  3. 3 PRST 21 ORE 70
  4. 4 PRST 0 ORE 55
  5. 5 PRST 0 ORE 59
  6. 6 PRST 0 ORE 63
  7. 7 PRST 0 ORE 66
  8. 8 PRST 0 ORE 70
  9. 9 PRST 6 ORE 80
  10. 10 PRST 6 ORE 87

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Portland State wins 0% of them, Oregon 100%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 84.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Portland State by 17+0.0%
Portland State by 9–160.0%
Portland State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Oregon by 1–80.4%
Oregon by 9–160.9%
Oregon by 17+98.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.7 points to Oregon: the final margin was Oregon by 84, without the luck Oregon by 72.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Portland State 5 for 47 yards, Oregon 8 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:28 Intentional Grounding on Portland State, 7 yards 0% ORE +0.4 pts
Q1 4:53 Block Below the Waist on Oregon, 15 yards 0% PRST +1.6 pts
Q1 3:48 Ineligible Downfield on Portland State, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% ORE +1.6 pts
Q2 14:57 Illegal Formation on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PRST +1.9 pts
Q2 13:41 Pass Interference on Portland State, 15 yards 0% ORE +2.4 pts
Q3 14:09 Holding on Oregon, 10 yards 0% PRST +1.1 pts
Q3 9:17 Personal Foul on Oregon, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% PRST +1.5 pts
Q3 9:17 Personal Foul on Oregon, 15 yards 0% PRST +0.9 pts
Q3 6:02 Delay of Game on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORE +2.6 pts
Q3 1:47 Illegal Block on Oregon, 10 yards 0% PRST +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PRST +1.2 pts
Q4 12:30 Face Mask on Portland State, 15 yards 0% ORE +1.6 pts
Q4 2:45 Delay of Game on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PRST +0.4 pts

When it happened

Oregon’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oregon was ahead in it, below while Portland State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:49 Oregon converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% ORE ORE: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:14 Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +0% ORE PRST: Punt
3 Q1 5:28 Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedIntentional Grounding on Portland State, 7 yardsJudgment calls +0% ORE PRST: Punt
4 Q1 3:48 Ineligible Downfield on Portland State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% ORE ORE: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:41 Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +0% ORE PRST: Punt
6 Q1 1:23 Oregon converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +0% ORE ORE: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:10 Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +0% ORE PRST: Punt
8 Q2 9:34 Oregon converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% ORE ORE: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Portland State 0% · Oregon 100%

Final margin
Oregon by 84
Luck in points
11.7 for Oregon
Luck-adjusted margin
Oregon by 72.3
Replay with same day's form
Portland State 0% · Oregon 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Portland State · Oregon

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