luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

North Dakota at Nebraska, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Nebraska beat North Dakota 34–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nebraska wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Nebraska was a 96% favorite.

Final

North Dakota Fighting Hawks 7
Nebraska Cornhuskers 34

September 19, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · Closing line: Nebraska −27.5

Luck index 0 Nebraska about even · 0 North Dakota

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Dakota wins 0, Nebraska wins 10.

  1. 1 UND 21 NEB 31
  2. 2 UND 7 NEB 24
  3. 3 UND 3 NEB 25
  4. 4 UND 3 NEB 28
  5. 5 UND 10 NEB 38
  6. 6 UND 13 NEB 44
  7. 7 UND 6 NEB 40
  8. 8 UND 7 NEB 44
  9. 9 UND 0 NEB 41
  10. 10 UND 0 NEB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Dakota wins 0% of them, Nebraska 100%. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Dakota by 17+0.0%
North Dakota by 9–160.0%
North Dakota by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.2%
Nebraska by 1–81.3%
Nebraska by 9–164.0%
Nebraska by 17+94.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to Nebraska: the final margin was Nebraska by 27, without the luck Nebraska by 19.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Cunanan, 54 yds missed · 48% expected
  • K. Cunanan, 32 yds made · 85% expected
  • K. Cunanan, 40 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Dakota 1 for 5 yards, Nebraska 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 8:10 False Start on North Dakota, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEB +0.6 pts
Q3 11:50 Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards 0% UND +0.6 pts
Q3 7:37 Unnecessary Roughness on Nebraska, 15 yards 0% UND +1.6 pts
Q4 12:26 Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards 0% UND +1.4 pts
Q4 10:10 False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UND +0.5 pts

When it happened

Nebraska’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Nebraska was ahead in it, below while North Dakota was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:10 Nebraska converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +0% NEB NEB: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:38 Nebraska converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +0% NEB NEB: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:41 North Dakota converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +0% UND UND: Punt
4 Q1 3:48 Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +0% UND NEB: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:09 Nebraska converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +0% NEB NEB: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:38 North Dakota was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% NEB UND: Punt
7 Q2 6:03 Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +0% UND NEB: Punt
8 Q2 1:33 Nebraska converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +0% NEB NEB: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Dakota 0% · Nebraska 100%

Final margin
Nebraska by 27
Luck in points
7.9 for Nebraska
Luck-adjusted margin
Nebraska by 19.1
Replay with same day's form
North Dakota 0% · Nebraska 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · North Dakota · Nebraska

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