Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Western Kentucky at Indiana, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Western Kentucky 38–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 0 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Indiana about even · 0 Western Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 0, Indiana wins 10.
- 1 WKU 7 IU 19
- 2 WKU 10 IU 31
- 3 WKU 6 IU 32
- 4 WKU 0 IU 32
- 5 WKU 3 IU 37
- 6 WKU 0 IU 38
- 7 WKU 6 IU 47
- 8 WKU 0 IU 45
- 9 WKU 0 IU 49
- 10 WKU 0 IU 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Kentucky wins 0% of them, Indiana 100%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 98.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. McAteer, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- P. McAteer, 21 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Western Kentucky 2 for 15 yards, Indiana 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:23 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% IU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:16 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:18 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WKU +3.8 pts |
| Q4 0:21 | Delay of Game on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:23 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:05 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% WKU | WKU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 1:10 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% IU | WKU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:20 | Indiana converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 10:40 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% WKU | IU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 8:16 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% IU | WKU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 4:09 | Indiana was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% WKU | IU: End of half |
| 8 | Q2 1:56 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% IU | WKU: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Kentucky 0% · Indiana 100%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 38
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for Western Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 38.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Kentucky 0% · Indiana 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Western Kentucky · 
Indiana
More from Week 3 2026
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner
- USC at Rutgers USC 42–35 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Purdue at UCLA UCLA 52–38 · replay 79% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Michigan State at Notre Dame ND 27–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin WIS 54–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 99% for the winner