Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Kennesaw State at Tennessee, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Tennessee beat Kennesaw State 42–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Tennessee was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Kennesaw State Owls | 9 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Volunteers | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Tennessee about even · −1 Kennesaw State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 0, Tennessee wins 10.
- 1 KENN 24 TENN 31
- 2 KENN 10 TENN 24
- 3 KENN 27 TENN 45
- 4 KENN 13 TENN 35
- 5 KENN 17 TENN 43
- 6 KENN 7 TENN 36
- 7 KENN 9 TENN 42
- 8 KENN 0 TENN 37
- 9 KENN 3 TENN 44
- 10 KENN 0 TENN 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kennesaw State wins 1% of them, Tennessee 99%. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 33.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Tennessee by 1–8 | 3.2% |
| Tennessee by 9–16 | 6.2% |
| Tennessee by 17+ | 89.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Kinney, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- C. Ranvier, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- C. Ranvier, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- D. Kinney, 25 yds made · 92% expected
- D. Kinney, 20 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Kennesaw State 9 for 90 yards, Tennessee 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:44 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 2 yards | 0% TENN +3.0 pts |
| Q1 6:22 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TENN +0.4 pts |
| Q1 5:07 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | 0% TENN +1.5 pts |
| Q1 0:41 | Personal Foul on Kennesaw State, 13 yards | 0% TENN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 12:21 | Personal Foul on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | 0% TENN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:19 | Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards | 0% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:51 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:26 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | 0% TENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:10 | False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:19 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | 0% TENN +2.4 pts |
| Q4 12:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | 0% TENN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:45 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | 0% TENN +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Tennessee’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:10 | Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% KENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:44 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:01 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +0% KENN | KENN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 5:07 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:56 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% TENN | KENN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 1:11 | Tennessee converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +0% TENN | TENN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 0:26 | Tennessee’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% TENN | TENN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 1:51 | Tennessee fumbled and Kennesaw State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% KENN | TENN: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kennesaw State 0% · Tennessee 100%
- Final margin
- Tennessee by 33
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for Kennesaw State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tennessee by 33.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Kennesaw State 1% · Tennessee 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Kennesaw State · 
Tennessee
More from Week 3 2026
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 32–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Mississippi State at South Carolina MSST 41–34 · replay 73% for the winner
- Florida at Auburn FLA 44–39 · replay 73% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Kentucky at Texas A&M UK 31–21 · replay 79% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Troy at Missouri MIZ 27–17 · replay 90% for the winner