luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Mississippi State at South Carolina, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Mississippi State beat South Carolina 41–34, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff South Carolina was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:13 left): Mississippi State converted 4th & 19, worth 13 points of win probability to Mississippi State.

Final

Mississippi State Bulldogs 41
South Carolina Gamecocks 34

September 19, 2026 · Williams-Brice Stadium · Closing line: South Carolina −3

Luck index +27 Mississippi State lucky · −27 South Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mississippi State wins 7, South Carolina wins 3.

  1. 1 MSST 52 SC 17
  2. 2 MSST 37 SC 10
  3. 3 MSST 39 SC 19
  4. 4 MSST 27 SC 10
  5. 5 MSST 30 SC 17
  6. 6 MSST 31 SC 23
  7. 7 MSST 20 SC 17
  8. 8 MSST 28 SC 31
  9. 9 MSST 14 SC 22
  10. 10 MSST 21 SC 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mississippi State wins 73% of them, South Carolina 27%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mississippi State by 17+33.3%
Mississippi State by 9–1619.8%
Mississippi State by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation3.7%
South Carolina by 1–813.0%
South Carolina by 9–167.6%
South Carolina by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to South Carolina: the final margin was Mississippi State by 7, without the luck Mississippi State by 11.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Orsan, 30 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Orsan, 34 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Orsan, 51 yds made · 53% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 36 yds made · 81% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 49 yds made · 58% expected
  • M. Orsan, 52 yds made · 51% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Mississippi State 14 for 101 yards, South Carolina 9 for 98 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:17 Offside on Mississippi State, 0 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% SC +1.5 pts
Q1 7:18 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MSST +4.7 pts
Q1 7:00 Illegal Block on Mississippi State, 8 yards +1% SC +0.5 pts
Q1 4:52 Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +12% SC +6.2 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SC +0.6 pts
Q2 13:58 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +3% SC +1.8 pts
Q2 9:49 Sideline Interference on South Carolina, 15 yards +1% MSST +0.9 pts
Q2 6:59 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSST +0.7 pts
Q2 1:48 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +3% SC +1.2 pts
Q2 1:19 Encroachment on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SC +0.3 pts
Q2 0:35 Personal Foul on South Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% MSST +2.0 pts
Q2 0:20 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards 0% SC +0.2 pts
Q3 12:04 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +6% SC +2.5 pts
Q3 11:19 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +1% MSST +0.6 pts
Q3 10:05 Holding on South Carolina, 8 yards +4% MSST +1.2 pts
Q3 7:56 Intentional Grounding on Mississippi State, 3 yards +1% SC +0.2 pts
Q3 6:56 Pass Interference on South Carolina, 15 yards +5% MSST +1.4 pts
Q3 5:50 Illegal Block on Mississippi State, 10 yards +2% SC +0.6 pts
Q3 3:59 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards +6% MSST +2.0 pts
Q4 9:55 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% SC +3.4 pts
Q4 8:35 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards 0% MSST +0.6 pts
Q4 3:03 Illegal Motion on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.1 pts
Q4 1:19 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards +1% MSST +1.1 pts

When it happened

South Carolina’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Carolina was ahead in it, below while Mississippi State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:18 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MSST MSST: Turnover
2 Q1 4:52 Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% SC SC: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:04 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% SC SC: Punt
4 Q3 10:13 Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 293rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedMississippi State converted 4th & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +13% MSST MSST: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:25 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% MSST MSST: Touchdown
6 Q3 6:56 Pass Interference on South Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% MSST MSST: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:44 Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% SC MSST: Field goal
8 Q3 3:59 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% MSST MSST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mississippi State 96% · South Carolina 4%

Final margin
Mississippi State by 7
Luck in points
4.7 for South Carolina
Luck-adjusted margin
Mississippi State by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Mississippi State 73% · South Carolina 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Mississippi State · South Carolina

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