Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
UTSA at Texas, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Texas beat UTSA 30–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas was a 97% favorite.
Final
 UTSA Roadrunners | 6 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Texas about even · −1 UTSA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTSA wins 0, Texas wins 10.
- 1 UTSA 0 TEX 6
- 2 UTSA 3 TEX 14
- 3 UTSA 10 TEX 24
- 4 UTSA 0 TEX 17
- 5 UTSA 0 TEX 20
- 6 UTSA 0 TEX 22
- 7 UTSA 3 TEX 27
- 8 UTSA 3 TEX 31
- 9 UTSA 0 TEX 31
- 10 UTSA 0 TEX 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTSA wins 1% of them, Texas 99%. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTSA by 17+ | 0.0% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 12.7% |
| Texas by 17+ | 79.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Petro, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- G. Spetic, 52 yds made · 51% expected
- G. Spetic, 34 yds made · 83% expected
- B. Doane, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- G. Spetic, 23 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: UTSA 11 for 105 yards, Texas 8 for 88 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:34 | Horse Collar Tackle on Texas, 15 yards | +1% UTSA +2.8 pts |
| Q1 3:24 | Personal Foul on Texas, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +1.6 pts |
| Q1 0:59 | False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:03 | Illegal Block on Texas, 10 yards | 0% UTSA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:38 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TEX +2.0 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Illegal Block on UTSA, 10 yards | 0% TEX +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards | 0% TEX +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:56 | Illegal Forward Pass on Texas, 5 yards | 0% UTSA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:40 | Face Mask on Texas, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:56 | Illegal Substitution on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +1.4 pts |
| Q3 12:38 | Holding on Texas, 8 yards | 0% UTSA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:25 | Unnecessary Roughness on UTSA, 15 yards | 0% TEX +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:57 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards | 0% TEX +1.5 pts |
| Q4 13:59 | Pass Interference on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TEX +1.8 pts |
| Q4 13:01 | False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +1.1 pts |
| Q4 11:25 | Roughing the Passer on UTSA, 15 yards | 0% TEX +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:22 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards | 0% TEX +1.3 pts |
| Q4 0:37 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:00 | Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:34 | Horse Collar Tackle on Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UTSA | UTSA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 6:04 | Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 5:04 | Texas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 3:24 | Personal Foul on Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UTSA | UTSA: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 2:02 | Texas was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% UTSA | TEX: Field goal |
| 7 | Q1 1:26 | G. Spetic made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +1% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 8:32 | Texas was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% UTSA | TEX: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTSA 0% · Texas 100%
- Final margin
- Texas by 24
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas by 20.0
- Replay with same day's form
- UTSA 1% · Texas 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
UTSA · 
Texas
More from Week 3 2026
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 32–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Mississippi State at South Carolina MSST 41–34 · replay 73% for the winner
- Florida at Auburn FLA 44–39 · replay 73% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Kentucky at Texas A&M UK 31–21 · replay 79% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner