SEC · 2026 season, in progress
Texas Longhorns: luck and expected wins
Texas is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 8th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.
2026, game by game
How often Texas wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texas State | W 59–7 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 2 | vs Ohio State | W 24–23 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 3 | vs UTSA | W 30–6 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ Tennessee | W 20–17 | 79% | +21 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Texas win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Oklahoma |  Texas by 10.9 | 75% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Florida | Texas by 7.7 | 68% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Ole Miss | Texas by 13.1 | 79% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Mississippi State | Texas by 12.5 | 77% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Missouri | Texas by 11.0 | 75% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at LSU |  LSU by 0.1 | 50% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Arkansas | Texas by 26.0 | 94% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | at Texas A&M | Texas by 6.2 | 64% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Texas’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.10 | +10.9 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.06 | +3.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.04 | +13.6 |
| Pre-snap flags | +0.04 | +2.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Texas takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Kentucky | W 16–13 | 7% | +93 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Texas A&M | W 27–17 | 31% | +69 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Ohio State | W 24–23 | 32% | +68 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Mississippi State | W 45–38 | 39% | +61 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs Oklahoma | W 23–6 | 66% | +34 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Texas would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 1 | @ Ohio State | L 7–14 | 62% | −62 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Florida | L 21–29 | 14% | −14 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ Georgia | L 10–35 | 2% | −2 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9–3 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 3–2 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Ohio State | L 7–14 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 2 | vs San José State | W 38–7 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 3 | vs UTEP | W 27–10 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 4 | vs Sam Houston | W 55–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 6 | @ Florida | L 21–29 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 7 | vs Oklahoma | W 23–6 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 8 | @ Kentucky | W 16–13 | 7% | +93 |
| Week 9 | @ Mississippi State | W 45–38 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 10 | vs Vanderbilt | W 34–31 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 12 | @ Georgia | L 10–35 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 13 | vs Arkansas | W 52–37 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 14 | vs Texas A&M | W 27–17 | 31% | +69 |
| Cheez-It Citrus Bowl | vs Michigan | W 41–27 | 93% | +7 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- SEC teams by luck
- SEC:
Alabama, 
Arkansas, 
Auburn, 
Florida, 
Georgia, 
Kentucky, LSU, 
Mississippi State, 
Missouri, 
Oklahoma, 
Ole Miss, 
South Carolina, 
Tennessee, 
Texas A&M, 
Vanderbilt
How many wins does Texas have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.1 wins.
Was Texas lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.9 wins of luck, the 8th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Texas’s luckiest season?
2025: 9–3 from play worth 6.6 wins, +2.4 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 4–0 from play worth 3.1 (+0.9).