Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Texas at Georgia, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Texas 35–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Texas: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Georgia it would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff Georgia was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:55 left): Offside on Texas, 5 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to Georgia.
Final
 Texas Longhorns | 10 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Bulldogs | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Georgia about even · −2 Texas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas wins 0, Georgia wins 10.
- 1 TEX 10 UGA 14
- 2 TEX 7 UGA 17
- 3 TEX 10 UGA 24
- 4 TEX 17 UGA 35
- 5 TEX 6 UGA 28
- 6 TEX 10 UGA 35
- 7 TEX 0 UGA 28
- 8 TEX 3 UGA 35
- 9 TEX 0 UGA 38
- 10 TEX 3 UGA 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Texas
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Georgia it would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for Texas: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.07 | worse by 0.11 |
| Texas defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.01 | worse by 0.12 |
| Georgia offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.11 | better by 0.02 |
| Georgia defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.05 | better by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas wins 2% of them, Georgia 98%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Georgia by 17+ | 76.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Texas 9 for 58 yards, Georgia 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:36 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:36 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on Texas, 4 yards | +1% UGA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:40 | Holding on Texas, 5 yards | +1% TEX +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:40 | Holding on Texas, 9 yards | +1% UGA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:34 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | +1% UGA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:17 | Illegal Shift on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:39 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | +3% UGA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:38 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards | 0% TEX +2.7 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | Offside on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +11% UGA +3.7 pts |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:19 | Georgia converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +4% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:09 | Texas was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +4% UGA | TEX: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 12:49 | Georgia converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% UGA | UGA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 3:17 | Texas was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedIllegal Shift on Texas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% UGA | TEX: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 12:23 | Texas converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +5% TEX | TEX: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 10:39 | Holding on Texas, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UGA | UGA: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 6:57 | Texas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 0:55 | Offside on Texas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas 0% · Georgia 100%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 25
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 21.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas 2% · Georgia 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Texas · 
Georgia
More from Week 12 2025
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Arkansas at LSU LSU 23–22 · replay 59% for the winner
- Florida at Ole Miss MISS 34–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- South Carolina at Texas A&M TA&M 31–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Tennessee Tech at Kentucky UK 42–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Missouri MIZ 49–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner